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Get ready for an active weather pattern as a strong cold front moves through the region. A nearly stacked low-pressure system over Kansas is driving gusty south-southeast winds, pushing warm, moist air into the area. Dew points in the mid-60s and increasing moisture (precipitable water values up to 2 inches) will create conditions favorable for isolated severe storms tonight.
Damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible, especially as the front pushes through from west to east overnight.
As of this writing the line of storms was still back across parts of western Louisiana.
Heavy rain is another concern, particularly in southern Mississippi and the Gulf Coast region, where 2-3 inches of rainfall could lead to flash flooding in low-lying and urban areas. Rain will taper off from the west by Tuesday, with totals ranging from 0.75 inches in the north to over 3 inches in the southeast.
And some spots would see up to 5″ of rain if storms train over the same areas.
Despite the front, temperatures will stay above normal through Tuesday.
After the rain clears out, cooler and drier air will arrive. A second cold front Wednesday will bring reinforcing cool air, followed by another push of cold air on Thursday, dropping morning lows into the low 40s.
While frost potential remains limited midweek due to lingering winds, patchy frost could develop over the weekend as calm conditions improve radiational cooling.
Looking into next week, high pressure over the southeast will dominate, leading to mostly dry and tranquil weather.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible after midnight. Near steady temperature in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tuesday: A slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Cooler with lows in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny. Less humid with highs around 70. Temperature falling into the lower 60s in the afternoon. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Wednesday Night: Clear. Much cooler with lows in the lower 40s.
Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
Thursday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Friday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
Friday Night: Clear. Lows around 40.
Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.