Expect clearing skies this afternoon as a cold front moves southward and dry air settles in, with precipitable water values (PWATS) dropping below 1 inch. Overnight, skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear, and temperatures will fall into the 40s..
A broad low-pressure trough will approach the Lower Mississippi River Valley early Wednesday, bringing increasing moisture. Dense fog could develop in the Pine Belt during the morning, with low cloud ceilings spreading across the region as a cold front nears. Daytime highs will depend on the amount of cloud cover and fog.
By evening, an upper trough will deepen into the ArkLaMiss region, sparking a chance for severe weather overnight into early Thursday. Daytime heating and strong upper-level winds may provide enough instability (1000–1400 J/kg) to support damaging winds, hail up to quarter size, and a low tornado risk. A Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe weather is in place.
To be honest, the model guidance isn’t very enthusiastic about the threat for storms – or rain, for that matter. Here is a look at the HRRR model, which has a broken line of weak showers passing through.
But the background ingredients will be there so we have to keep an eye on any storm that develops.
Any lingering storms should exit by Thursday morning, with cooler air filtering in behind the front. Highs will top out in the 60st. Overnight, temperatures will drop further into the low 30s to low 40s.
Chilly weather will dominate, for Thanksgiving and into the weekend.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Cooler with lows around 50. North winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers after midnight. Not as cool with lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Temperature falling into the mid 60s in the afternoon. Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Much cooler with lows in the mid 40s.
Friday: Sunny. Much cooler with highs in the upper 50s.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Cold with lows in the lower 30s.
Monday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
It’s 12 noon here and still looking/hoping for those clearing skies. After all day clouds yesterday, I would like to see some sun.