We’ve had some decent cloud cover over us for the day, which will lead into what’s possible for tomorrow. As the clouds still remain during the day tomorrow, it’ll limit the severe weather potential for our area. Along with this, we’ll have some patchy fog overnight. Let’s dive in.
First off let’s talk about how much potential energy this thing has. There is a decent amount in southern and central Louisiana as the front moves through, however the clouds I mentioned earlier will limit that instability. The one big thing that this system does have going for it is wind shear. Going up in the atmosphere, this system has some good veering winds which means that some straightline winds and maybe a tornado will be possible for people in the area. As the system moves east towards Mississippi, some of that CAPE will be lost as dewpoints begin to drop as it moves further. There are a few spots that will rise as the front moves in, but the occlusion of the front is also a factor that limits some of the moisture flow. Despite this, some flash flooding is possible in some areas.
In summary: Some severe thunderstorms will be possible especially in parts of Louisiana and western Mississippi. Strong winds are possible and a tornado can’t be ruled out. As it moves further past the I-55 corridor, it’ll begin to lose steam and we’ll likely see some thunderstorms with some isolated severe thunderstorms possible. I think the SPC is calling it fairly well in terms of location. This system should be out of here by mid-morning.
Afterwards, we’ll have much more pleasant weather on the horizon. Friday will be a little on the warm side with temperatures around 70 and clouds beginning to move out with the front. The winds will shift towards the northwest during the evening and bring a cool evening in the mid 40s. The weekend should be fantastic weather, albeit a bit warm for this time of year. Highs will reach the upper 60s on Saturday with clear skies and another low in the mid 40s. Sunday will also be quite pleasant with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the low 70s. As the high pressure system makes its way in from the Atlantic on Monday, we’ll begin to warm up even more with temperatures in the mid 70s and a low in the mid 50s due to some southerly influence.
Select Data Set:
Regional Day-to-Day Forecast
Tonight – Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid 50s. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Thursday – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid 70s. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 3am, then showers likely. Low in the low 60s. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Friday – Scattered showers, mainly before 8am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the low 70s. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night – Mostly clear, with a low in the mid 40s. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday – Mostly sunny, with a high in the upper 60s. Calm wind.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear, with a low in the low 40s. Calm wind.
Sunday – Sunny, with a high in the low 70s. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear, with a low in the mid 40s. Calm wind.
Monday – Mostly sunny, with a high in mid 70s.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid 50s.
Tuesday – Partly sunny, with a high in the mid 70s.
Tuesday Night – Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid 50s.
Wednesday – Partly sunny, with a high in the mid 70s.
