Hello everyone and happy Wednesday! For today’s CONUS outlook, we will follow the format of big picture currently, then breakdown the CONUS into sections looking at the upcoming weather.
As usual, we will start with a 500MB map and look at the features marked across the entire CONUS.
Looking at the major upper-level features, starting from the west we can see an upper-level low currently over the Pacific Northwest. Next, we have a ridge near Colorado and Nebraska, followed by another upper-level low over Canada. Finally we have another ridge centered over the western Atlantic. As we move into each section of the CONUS, we will see how each of these features plays a role in that area’ s weather forecast.
Western CONUS
Looking at the next week in the western part of the CONUS, after the upper-level low begins to depart from the pacific northwest, temperatures will likely remain above average. For the rest of the western US, the previously mentioned ridge over Colorado and Nebraska will remain mostly stationary, leading to higher than average temperatures.
In terms of precipitation, most of the western US will remain dry, apart from portions of Arizona, and Utah which will continue to be influenced by monsoonal activity from the Pacific and Gulf of California.
Central / Southern CONUS
Taking a look at the central and southern CONUS, with no particularly severe weather expected, attention turns to temperatures and precipitation for the upcoming week.
As we saw in the first image with the 500MB analysis, we have two upper-level ridges situated over the Rockies and the western Atlantic respectively.
With the central of the ridge closest to the Rockies, states such as Nebraska and Kansas are expected to see the highest surface temperatures anomalies over the next week, with the rest of central and southern US being right at or even below average as you move closer to the Great Lakes region.
Looking at this in more detail at 700MB, we can see this pattern set up which leads to the contrast in surface temperatures.
Looking at the pattern on Friday, we can see how this supports the temperature anomaly outlook. Where we expect cooler than average temperatures in the Great Lakes region, northerly flow is expected with a cooler airmass coming down from Canada. On the other side of the ridge, southerly flow allows for a warmer airmass to build in, leading to higher than average temperatures down at the surface.
In terms of precipitation, much of it will be confined to the southeast and mid-Atlantic states where the influence from the ridge is less prominent.
Northeast CONUS
After a long stretch of heat and humidity in the northeast, we are finally looking at temperatures being around average to even cooler than average for this time of year!
This change is due to a cold front that moved through the region Tuesday night, leading to cooler and less humid airmass taking place of the more tropical airmass that was present over the region for the past couple of weeks.
Looking at precipitation for the upcoming week, anything significant looks to be scarce for the northeast, with some of the region even expected to not receive any rainfall.
With much of New England under some type of drought ranging from dry to severe, rain is something that this area could seriously use, however, convective rainfall has been hit or miss and is not enough to put a dent in the drought the region is currently experiencing.
Long Range Outlook
Taking a look beyond seven days, the CONUS is looking to be less dominated by significant heat, with portions of the US even seeing below average temperatures in the long term.
The western US and in particular the Pacific Northwest sticks out as a region in particular where higher than average temperatures are expected in the long term. Otherwise, portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley are expected to see lower than normal temperatures in the long term, with the rest of the CONUS remaining right at or slightly above average.
In terms of precipitation, monsoonal moisture is expected to keep the southwest under chances for higher than average precipitation amounts, with much of the eastern seaboard also expected to receive higher than normal precipitation in the long term. Below average amounts are expected into the Pacific Northwest and extending into the northern Great Plains region.
