A historic event appears to be unfolding in the Eastern Pacific as California finds itself under a cone of uncertainty and discussion about watches is ongoing. We also have a second area of interest in the Pacific that we are monitoring for additional development. In the Atlantic, we are monitoring four areas of interest which could develop in the coming days as the Atlantic becomes increasingly favorable for tropical development. We will break down the specifics of both basins below!
Hurricane Hilary
Major Hurricane Hilary continues to rapidly intensify and is expected to obtain category five status. Warm SSTs of 30-31 degrees Celsius, little to no vertical wind shear, and an overall favorable upper air pattern have allow for rapid intensification to take place in this large storm. Hilary is expected to parallel the Mexican Coastline along the Baja Peninsula as a major hurricane and as a result Tropical Storm warnings and watches are active at this time for that region.
Hilary is taking a rare path for a major hurricane and due to its intensity and forward speed in conjecture with an upper low off the coast of California the forecast calls for a landfall on the California/Mexico border. The last tropical system to make landfall in the Southern California region was all the way back in 1939. It is critical that residents within this region heed all watches, warnings, and information from local officials as the system approaches.
After Hilary makes landfall and/or becomes post tropical, impacts will continue to be felt across the regions where a moderate risk for flash flooding will exist. This region could see upwards of 5-7 inches with some locations seeing rainfall as high as 15 inches due to mountainous terrain. Regions which receive heavy rainfall could be susceptible to landslides and residents along the mountain communities should be extra cautious when the storm begins to impact their community. Be sure to check back frequently for updates on Hurricane Hillary and look to your local NWS offices, NHC, and other governmental bodies for up to date materials as the storm moves closer.
Atlantic Ocean Development.
We are currently monitoring four areas of interest in the Atlantic which could bring impacts to the Gulf Coast, Caribbean, and the open ocean in the coming days.
The first area of interest, is a tropical wave currently located near the Turks and Caicos producing scattered thunderstorm activity. While this wave is not expected to develop within the next 48 hours due to unfavorable upper level winds. The wave is expected to move into the Gulf Of Mexico and be able to take advantage of a much more favorable environment.
Hot SSTs of 29-31 degrees C, low vertical wind shear, and moist air could permit a tropical cyclone to develop and interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the Gulf as the wave enters the region early next week.
The second area of interest, is a tropical wave located 500 miles of the Lesser Antilles. This region could see an area of low pressure form in the coming days as the wave moves general westward toward the Caribbean. Given the elongated nature of the wave and the hostile environment of the Caribbean this system may gradual develop, but its chances of becoming an organize tropical system remain low at this time.
The third area of interest, is a tropical wave being area two. This wave is currently producing scattered thunderstorms and showers and is expected to move West Northwest missing the harmful shear that area of interest two will encounter. This should allow a tropical depression or storm to form over the next several days and begin advancing one a more northward path. Impact to land with this area of interest are not currently expected.
The final area of interest, is a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde islands. This tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa as a rather strong mesoscale system which already had an area of low pressure. This wave has become increasingly organized with curved banding, frequent showers and thunderstorms, and gust winds being observed via satellite. This system should form into a tropical depression within the next few days and begin moving west northwest across the open Atlantic. After this weekend, environmental conditions will turn hostile and further development of this system won’t be expected at that time.
East Pacific Area of Interst
Other then Hurricane Hilary, there is one additional area of interest near Central America. This region could foster the development of a new region of low pressure and begin to organize by the early to middle part of next week. While exact track, impact, and genesis timing isn’t known at this time. Monitoring this area if you are a resident of Southern Mexico could be of interest to you.
Extended Outlook
Looking into the extend range, we are approaching the climatological peak of hurricane season and both basins look to be getting more active within the extended time range. The African Easterly Wave Train looks to be getting underway within a favorable MJO set up leading to the formation of one or more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic while in the Pacific, El Nino conditions are promoting rising air, hot SSTs, and weak shear which should continue to encourage tropical development in that region. As we enter peak season residents along both the Atlantic and Pacific coastline should continue to monitor the tropics for any formation that may move their ways.
Conclusion
Hurricane Hillary continues to intensify and looks to take a strike on or near the Southern California coastline early next week. Residents within this region should heed all messaging from local officials and continue to monitor here and local NWS offices for updates. The Atlantic basin looks to be waking up in time for peak season with several areas of interest worth monitoring and signs that this active period is just getting started.
