Showers and storms will be possible today, with the potential for a few severe storms – but that doesn’t mean everyone will definitely see rain. This is a bit of a quagmire of a storm system, in a way.
No, not that kind of quagmire. A bit of an “awkward, complex, or hazardous situation” as defined by the dictionary. This setup, for the Southern MS/AL/LA region, is one with a higher-than-normal ceiling and a very low floor.
So, if a storm can get situated in the right way, there is enough ‘juice’ in the atmosphere that few tornadoes are possible. But, if no storm finds itself in the right place at the right time, this is going to be a nothing-burger of an event.
Speaking of nothing-burger, here is a look at the HRRR model’s take on the midday radar:
It’ll take things being in the right place at the right time, for sure. The main timeline for storms looks to be between 9a to the west and 3p to the east. But, as you can see, it won’t be raining the whole time by any means.
As it stands right now, the Storm Prediction Center has the region highlighted with a Slight Risk for many spots and a Marginal Risk for others. And ther eis a 2-percent and 5-percent tornado risk.
At face value, looking at the stats, you’d say, “wow, severe weather looks likely today!” But that risk is, again, contingent on a storm being able to tap into the right parts of the atmosphere. Otherwise, very generally, the threat for severe weather today looks pretty low.
Looking at the data, we do nail all the important stuff for brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind and small hail. ut we miss out on the LCLs (how low the cloud base is) and that is a big part of tornado development. If the LCLs are too high, we won’t get a tornado. And generally, the LCLs are too high.
In specific spots, though, with the right storm in the right place at the right time… that may be different. And that is why today is a bit of a quagmire. You might see a tornado. Or you might see, literally, nothing. Not even real rain.
And if you want to use the Updraft Helicity streaks to identify where the strongest storms will be….. you can’t. Because the threat for severe weather is so contingent on circumstance, the model guidance can’t find anything to latch onto to make a forecast.
The best news I can offer is that the main concern today is for brief heavy rain, lightning, and some pretty gusty wind (storms at my house in Houston last night knocked over a few large potted plants). While there is a chance for small hail, that chance is low and while there is a chance for tornadoes, the threat for “big” tornadoes is basically zero.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Mostly cloudy with storms possible this morning into early afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Temperature falling into the mid 70s this afternoon. South winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming southwest this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight
Clear. Lows around 50.
Wednesday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
Wednesday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.
Friday
Passing clouds with a 30-percent shot for storms. Highs in the upper 70s.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
Saturday
Partly sunny with storms possible. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 50.
Monday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Certainly hope your potted plants are doing OK. If the Future Cast ‘is’ right, it looks like it runs out of steam as it progresses east.