Looking in hindsight to last week’s outlook, the GFS was correct about the rain chances today. A shortwave trough will develop directly over Mississippi bringing in a lot of scattered rain for the mid-afternoon into the evening. Considering the position of the trough moving right over our heads, however, the severe weather for us will be much more limited. Since it’s just being born over us and beginning to rotate, the winds are all over the place in the lower and mid-atmosphere which will will inhibit a lot of severe development at least for us in Mississippi.
The SPC does have a marginal risk for severe weather for the coast to the Pinebelt, however most of the development will be as it passes through to Alabama, Georgia and especially Florida. That being said, heavy rain, some flash flooding and wind are possible through the evening into the overnight hours. The timing of these storms will be from the early afternoon until after midnight. Rainfall will amounts could reach half an inch in the Pinebelt.
For Sunday, the clouds will clear out in the morning for a very pleasant albeit windy day. The cold front will push through after the storms pass which will bring in the northwestern winds to make it a bit drier and temperatures around average for late Spring. Temperatures will be in the upper-70’s to low 80’s across the Pinebelt with winds around 10-15 mph and a few wind gusts.
Regional Day-to-Day Forecast
Today – A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the early afternoon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm in the mid-afternoon. A mix of clouds and sun, with a high near 79. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight – Showers and thunderstorms until after midnight. Low around 56. West wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 78. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light west in the evening.
Monday – Sunny, with a high near 79. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 53. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. North wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. North northeast wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
Thursday – Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Thursday Night – Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Friday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88.
