If you were up early enough, you got a chance to enjoy the frosty start to today across our, with morning lows hovering around the low 30s.
We are in for a bit of an up-and-down weather pattern during the next two weeks (with a potential for some cold as we head toward Christmas). Right now, a ridge of high pressure has settled into the region. That’ll keep us drier through Saturday night. At least.
Then, as we move through Saturday night and into Sunday, we should have enough of a southerly kick to offer a chance for rain. Though, for the moment, it does look like the heaviest rain – as well as the best chance for rain – should stay to our north.
That setup may hold through Monday. Then Tuesday a stronger cold front tries to push into the area. That’ll give us another shot for rain. Then another cold front arrives by next Thursday. Again, another shot for rain. And another shot of cooler air.
It is interesting to see just how active the pattern will be for our region. With each next front ushering in more cooler air.
So far, it doesn’t look like any potential for severe weather with any of these passing systems. But what if I told you the latest round of model data shows a different kind of “s” weather word.
Now, before anyone gets too excited (or sad), this is a loooong way out. And any “s” stuff that this model is showing, is showing it to be very light – more like ice crystal showers – but it is an indication of just how cold the models think this air may be around December 21st.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today: Patchy frost this morning. Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy frost after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the mid 40s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. East winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
CHRISTMAS FORECAST
No big changes to the Christmas forecast – even if the model guidance went a bit colder today compared to yesterday. The most important part of producing a weather forecast for more than 7 days out is to monitor model guidance trends, and not take what any one weather model spits out at any one time as ‘the’ forecast.
For instance, the data this morning shows temperatures much colder than yesterday. But I’m not going to change the forecast because this is only one model run.
And a “potentially colder” Christmas forecast was something I talked about last night. But not this cold. The data it kicked out this morning is likely too cold.
But hey, waking up in the 20s on Christmas Eve and the 30s on Christmas morning might be fun for the kids!
