10:00AM UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center is now referring to Invest 92L as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.
ORIGINAL:
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Invest 92L. Development into a Tropical Depression is considered, nearly, imminent. The NHC has also scheduled a trip out to the Invest by the Hurricane Hunters. If this system develops into a Tropical Storm it will be named Barry.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad low pressure area located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida, is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. This system could produce storm surge and tropical-storm- or hurricane-force winds across portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Upper Texas coasts later this week, and interests there should closely monitor its progress. In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle. For more information, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
Morning science
It looks like overnight the center of Invest 92L was pulled south. Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits did a great job highlighting that last night.
Courtesy: College of Dupage Meteorology – via GIPHY
The question now is, can it get vertically stacked… where the areas of lower pressure in the low-levels and mid-levels end up very close to or on top of each other. Once that happens, things can really start to get organized within the system.
Also, take a look at the loop above, you may notice the ‘clearing out’ that is occurring over parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Florida panhandle. Yesterday there was a weak trough in the area and it looks like there is some remnants of that this morning. I looked quick on the 500mb wind vectors from the HRRR model and sure enough across parts of Georgia a north wind is depicted.
That may help to keep Invest 92L a bit disorganized this morning. And in the extreme short-term. But in the medium-term (the next 72 hours), development is likely.
Most model guidance continues to show a Tropical Storm at landfall. But model guidance for intensity is often not very trustworthy beyond 48-72 hours, so we are looking at the very edge of our ‘trust zone’ for Invest 92L.
And, according to the Rapid Intensification numbers, there is still a chance that this thing really wraps itself up.
The RI data shows a 12-percent chance that Invest 92L grows into Hurricane Barry before landfall. And that is something the HWRF also thinks is possible.
However, as noted in the chart a few graphics up, most model guidance thinks a Tropical Storm is the most likely outcome.
The one place the models are still in consensus is the area where landfall may occur. While we can’t pick a particular ‘spot’ at this point, there is a general area that most models continue to point toward: The Louisiana coast.
There are some models that still take it toward Texas and others that swing it north into Mississippi, but most continue to show landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coastline.
Does that mean guaranteed landfall there? Absolutely not. (more on this later)
Now that the fun science is done… What are the impacts for you
Rain. Rain will be your major impact. And it doesn’t really matter where you are along the path of Invest 92L / Barry. Rain will be the most major impact for you. The Weather Prediction Center continues to increase the rain totals for parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. At last check hre were some forecasts:
Louisiana
New Orleans – 8+ inches
Baton Rouge – 9+ inches
Lafayette – 11+ inches
Alexandria – 5+ inches
Lake Charles – 4+ inches
Shreveport – 1+ inches
Mississippi
Gulfport – 7+ inches
Hattiesburg – 5+ inches
McComb – 7+ inches
Jackson – 3+ inches
Meridian – 3+ inches
Tupelo – 1+ inches
Model guidance has some numbers that look even higher for some spots, too. Lower for others. The Weather Prediction Center does a great job of ‘seeing through’ a lot of the model data to pick out how much rain some spots will get. For example, take a look at the latest GFS:
This shows a more concentrated bulls-eye of rain for places like New Orleans, Thibodaux and Baton Rouge and McComb. As model data continues to come in, the forecast for specific rain totals will be changed, but know that we expect the region to see between 2″ and 6″ of rain across the board with some places seeing more (as much as double!). So plan accordingly.
Storm surge / Coastal flooding will also be an issue, but until the models can pick out where Invest 92L is going, we can’t really ID where the greatest storm surge will be.
The wind is also something we can’t get a good hold on yet, given we don’t know – for sure – how strong Invest 92L will become.
The timeline
Today – Further organization / development in the Gulf
Thursday – Likely a Tropical Depression while organizing itself further and strengthening due south of Mississippi in the Gulf, moving west
Friday – Possibly a Tropical Storm, at least a Tropical Depression given latest model data south of Thibodaux moving northwest
Saturday – Possibly a Tropical Storm, with a low-chance of being a weak Hurricane, making landfall somewhere between Houston and New Orleans, moving north
Sunday – Inland and raining itself out
That is about as specific as we can get at this point.
So, what’s the hold up? Can’t you figure it out, Nick?
It’s tough. Because, for Invest 92L, strength and track are so closely related to one-another. Plus, the system is developing so close to land. It becomes a very messy situation to forecast. Because every little wiggle can mean something so drastic.
When tropical systems develop and form in the open Atlantic there is nothing but fish to forecast for during the first few days. So if it wobbles around, it is no big deal. If it strengthens quick or slow, it won’t really impact anything. Plus once it is done and formed, the models do a much better job at offering quality data to use for a forecast.
In this case, it is disorganized and messy close to land. So we (all of us meteorologists) are trying to figure out what it is going to do with worse-than-normal data in an area where the potential impacts are even greater.
What should I do now?
If you live in a flood-prone area, assess your surroundings. Is the creek near your house clear of debris? Are the storm drains clogged? Fix those things now. If a Flash Flood Emergency was issued for your area, do you know where to go? Find a safe place from flooding now.
While this isn’t anticipated to be some Monster Hurricane, prolonged rain can cause serious problems. Flooding is the deadliest form of severe weather. It kills more people than tornadoes. So please take it seriously.
Also check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit. That’s about it. Make sure you have enough supplies to last a few days without power and water. Not because this system is anticipated to wipe out power and water to an area, but rather, you should always have enough supplies to last a few days without power and water during Hurricane season.
