A developing El Nino could mean more rain for the southern plains and help for the current drought
Amarillo, TX – According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – or NOAA – El Nino could make a return this year. The scientists and climatologists have issued an El Nino watch and indicated that there is a 50-percent chance that an El Nino forms.
For the southern high plains, it can’t come soon enough. After three years of substantially fewer raindrops falling across the area, science and operations officer Todd Lindley summed up the possibility of an El Nino frankly.
“The best part of an El Nino year,” Lindley said. “It isn’t La Nina.”
La Nina, the yin to the yang of El Nino, so to speak, instead of warmer waters along the equatorial Pacific, the water is cooler. The difference across the southern plains is drastic.
“La Nina is a significant driver for drought on the southern high plains,” Lindley said. “It is also a strong indicator that we could have an active wildfire season.”
The past three years? No exception. Including a very active 2011 wildfire season.
But that could be changing according to NOAA. The current prediction is that the onset of El Nino could be realized as soon as this summer.
“My forecasting would probably have more of a wet bias than a dry bias,” Amarillo National Weather Service meteorologist Christine Krause said of the possibilities of a change to El Nino.
That’s because El Nino usually translates to a more active weather pattern for the southern plains. As storms move in, they start from places like Arizona and northern Mexico and then push east and northeast across the region instead of starting from places like Colorado and Kansas and then move southeast. That slight change in movement allows those systems to entrain moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and that often means more rain and snow chances.
“When we get winds from the southeast,” Krause said. “That is the rich Gulf moisture. That is what we need for rainfall.”
Lindley points out that there is a “lag time” of up to three months between the onset of an El Nino and the beneficial impacts across the area. That means, even if an El Nino formed tomorrow, the southern plains could be waiting until June for any noticeable change.
And, according to Columbia University, there is an even better chance that El Nino forms in the winter rather than the summer.
Lindley also warned that a 50-percent chance that El Nino forms, also means a 50-percent chance that nothing changes. And a “neutral” phase – a pattern that is neither El Nino or La Nina – means a more variable weather pattern that is dependant on week-to-week patterns.
