Someone needs to consult that groundhog again. It’s looking like a few calm days before we traverse an up-and-down forecast – that includes snow – as we close out the week and start this weekend.
Wednesday, we will start to usher in warmer, moist(er) air. We won’t have dewpoint values in the 60s by any stretch, but we are expecting to filter in just enough moisture to make Thursday an interesting day for along the Texas/Oklahoma border.
On Thursday, we should be able to spark off a few very isolated showers and thunderstorms in some of the eastern counties of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Right now, severe weather isn’t anticipated, but the ingredients are there for strong storms with gusty winds and small hail. Because we won’t have a lot of available moisture, rainfall totals will likely be under 1/4-inch.
As we head into the overnight hours Thursday into Friday some of the lingering moisture could fall as a rain/snow mix or all snow across some of our northern counties. No accumulations expected at this time, but a dusting could be realized in places like Boise City, Guymon and Beaver.
Shaded area <.05″
Okay, now is where I get to be honest with everyone. Sometimes, the weather models are in agreement and other times they are on opposite sides of the table talking back and forth in circles.
Friday is an example of the latter.
According to the computer weather models, Friday afternoon is a toss up. There are equal sides to both arguments that it will be sunny and that there will be a chance for thunderstorms.
I tend to lean toward ‘no activity’ in our area, with the bulk of the forcing to our east, but we will watch it closely. Again the main threats will be wind and small hail.
(Blue <1″ // Green >1″)
Then on Saturday, another round of moisture swings through with a reinforcing shot of cold air and an area of upper-level low pressure. t looks to be a decent mixture of ingredients to bring the rest of the area a chance for some cold rain showers or a rain snow mix.
And, yes, some models even suggesting Saturday afternoon a chance for all snow to fall.
As it looks right now, I’m thinking accumulating snow is not likely. Perhaps a little over an inch in some of our northwestern counties, but for everyone else just enough snow in the air to remind us that the groundhog is simply that, a groundhog.
