As the big severe weather threat has passed through Mississippi and Alabama, we’re not quite out of the woods yet. The same front that brought us the severe weather is now stalling over us for the next couple of days. With this, means another chance of severe weather as the conditions are right again for storms to develop.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a Slight (2 out of 5) risk for severe weather tomorrow. Gusty winds, hail, and even tornadoes are possible with this system. Looking at the low and mid levels, the main reason for this is the winds backing from the southwest to the south bringing enough moisture from the surface and low levels. With dewpoints in the mid and upper 60’s and enough instability with temperatures reaching the 80’s today and staying humid throughout the overnight hours, we have our key ingredients for tomorrow’s severe weather day.
In terms of timing, this is going to be an all daytime event. Storms will start developing after the crack of dawn and won’t really taper away from the Pinebelt until sunset. Our main line of storms will start in the mid-morning and will keep developing as the front begins to occlude and lift towards the north. In terms of direction, the storms will be pushing east and will be moving up to the north with the front as we go into the evening. Our main concerns are strong gusty winds, golf ball sized hail and possible tornadoes. Many of these storms are in a broken line which means that they’ll vary in severity depending on the conditions.
As the severe weather passes north, the stationary front will begin to move eastward and bring in another line of storms. While not severe, keep an umbrella and a jacket handy as the rain will begin in the afternoon into the overnight hours. The rest of the week will be a mixed bag with partly to mostly cloudy days a chance of rain by the end of the week with temperatures warming back up by the end of the week as well.
Regional Day-to-Day Forecast
Today – Mostly cloudy becoming sunny later in the day with a high near 84. Winds West Southwest at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight – A chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Increasing clouds, with a low around 64. Winds South around 5 mph.
Sunday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a chance of severe storms throughout the day. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Winds West Southwest shifting South Southeast at 5 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch.
Sunday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnigh with a chance of severe. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Winds South at 5 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms likely after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Winds Southwest at 5 mph. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Monday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely in the overnight hours. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind around 5 mph shifting West after midnight. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Tuesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Winds North Northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night – Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Winds North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday – A mix of clouds and sun, with a high near 69. Winds East at 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79.
Thursday Night – Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86.
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