You ever heard that saying April showers bring May flowers? Yeah me neither. We’re starting off April with rain and thunderstorms for the next week or so. While our severe weather season has been a bit of a weekly occurrence, this week is not too different. For us, however, we may not see as much severe weather, but rain will be a-plenty for a few reasons.
A low pressure system on the Canadian border is pushing through the Central Plains into the Great Lakes pushing a closed ridge to our South out to the Atlantic. Since they’re meeting up, Southerly flow is pushing moisture from the Gulf into the Deep South bringing with rain chances Sunday overnight into Monday. While this is happening, the same ridge begins to grow out in the Atlantic which will start to block the next few low pressure systems that will form over the next week. At the same time, a strong trough is forming from the West that will push through the central US during the middle of the week.
As the mid-Atlantic ridge sets up, this will keep the low pressure further North. The severe weather so far is looking to be our Northwest towards northeastern Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri, but North Mississippi may be in the mix depending on how far South the low goes. The SPC has us out of range for any severe weather. The ingredients for the severe weather like wind shear, lapse rates and moisture look to be further north as well. This will be what we have to look out for from late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Wednesday is also when the front begins to stall. The low pressure moves further towards Northern Canada while the ridge is still going strong in the Atlantic. With this, we’ll still see southerly flow bringing in plenty of rain especially where the low left off, mainly in the Southwest, central and northeastern portions of Mississippi for Thursday. Friday and Saturday will be our main chances for rain. Easter Sunday will begin to clear the rain out as a low pushes out the high pressure system that was bringing us that rain.
Overall, it’s going to be a fairly wet week next week and the Easter Egg hunts are going to be a bit problematic unless the rain chances dissipate on Saturday. Our main chance for severe weather will be Tuesday night into Wednesday, however the threat is limited for most of the Pinebelt as the low is staying North according to the models. With the front stalling over the latter part of the week, we’ll see scattered rain chances from Thursday into Sunday.
Regional Day-to-Day Forecast
Today – Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Winds Southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight – Showers and thunderstorms overnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Winds South Southeast at 5 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Monday – Showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Mixed clouds and sun with a high near 85. Winds South Southwest at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday Night – Increasing clouds, with a low around 69. Winds South around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Winds South at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tuesday Night – Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Winds South Southeast at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Winds South around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Winds South around 10 mph becoming east northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Thursday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 71. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night – Showers and thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Friday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 73.
Friday Night – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Saturday – Rain and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 74.
