Good morning, folks & happy Saturday!
With the system that the National Hurricane Center was watching in the Gulf of Mexico having moved onshore and no longer posing a threat to develop, there are currently no disturbances in the Atlantic Basin that the NHC is watching.
In the Pacific, however, the NHC continues to track Tropical Storm Darby and newly designated Tropical Depression Six-E. The good news is that, as of now, these two disturbances don’t look as if they’ll pose a threat to land, but we’ll still take a quick look anyway.
Tropical Storm Darby
This storm has been full of surprises so far. After rapidly intensifying into a small-but-strong category 4 hurricane with winds in excess of 140mph, the storm entered into a poorer environment and began to weaken. Darby weakened to a category 2 hurricane with winds of 100mph by early Tuesday morning, but surprisingly the Hurricane’s eye reappeared and Darby strengthened back to a major category 3 hurricane by late Tuesday night.
Since Tuesday, though, the poor environment finally got to Darby, and the storm has since weakened back to a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 60mph and a minimum central pressure of 1002mb.
As for Darby’s future, it will continue to weaken as it moves to the south of the Big Island of Hawaii, likely becoming a Tropical Depression by early Saturday morning. As far as any impacts, the National Hurricane Center is calling for some large surf and the threat for dangerous rip currents, as well as the potential for some locations, particularly the eastern halves of the Big Island and Maui, to receive periods of heavy rain, with accumulations up to 2-4″.
Tropical Depression Six-E
The National Hurricane Center has been watching this system for the past few days now, and it has finally been upgraded to a Tropical Depression. As of the time of writing this article, Six-E has maximum sustained winds of 35mph and a minimum central pressure of 1007mb – when this system attains maximum wind speeds of 39mph or more, it will officially be designated as Tropical Storm Estelle… Which, according to the NHC, is likely to happen by early Saturday morning.
Six-E is expected to continue to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves to the northwest in the coming days, before entering a less-favorable environment by Tuesday. Apart from some enhanced surf for parts of Mexico, no impacts are expected from this storm.
A Quiet Atlantic
As noted earlier, the National Hurricane Center is currently not watching any systems in the Atlantic for the possibility to develop into a tropical cyclone.
At the moment, a lack of moisture and relatively strong wind shear are the main reasons for the poor chance for systems to develop further.
Of the weak easterly waves moving off the coast of Africa this week, they will all have to battle some very dry air to their north as they enter the Atlantic. The GFS model has all but one of these waves weaken tremendously, with one potentially becoming a weak tropical storm late this week before increased shear and some dry air intrusion will act to weaken it. Needless to say, the main development region will likely continue to remain dormant through the end of next week.
Outside of the main development region of the Atlantic Basin, the story is much the same, with largely unfavorable wind shear, drier mid-levels and the overall lack of of any disturbance will keep tropical development chances on the low side for the next week.
