Hello all and happy Sunday! For today’s weather forecast, we will be looking at mostly average summertime high temperatures to continue (low to mid 90s), with normal summer time convection with higher chances of rain mid week with a trough developing to our northeast.
Starting off with the current conditions, we can see a ridge to our west, as well as the subtropical ridge off of the Atlantic extending in to our region.
With the ridge axis extending over our region, this gives us temperatures for today expected to be around average, with most of the convective precipitation expected to stay to the north or south of our forecast area. Thankfully with the center of the ridge or the blue “H” not directly over us, we should stay out of a heat advisory as the heat indices will likely remain below 105. We can recall from earlier this summer where we had extreme heat when we had an upper-level ridge directly over us.
With a southerly flow at the surface continuing, temperatures will be around the low to mid 90s across much of the region, which is right around average for this time of year. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, tomorrow, this brings the heat indicies right around either side of 100 for many locations.
As stated before, the precipitation today is very scattered, as the dynamics do not support any widespread severe weather.
However with the high PWAT (precipitable water) values between 1.5-2″, any storms over the next couple of days do bring the potential for flooding, as there is a lot of moisture potential with any convective storm that forms.
Moving into the work week, our best chances for precipitation continue to be Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday, where an upper-level trough looks to dip into our area.
Just a quick refresher on what this map tells us. The advection or “movement” of this vorticity (darker reds) into our region gives us rising motion. This rising motion leads to cloud and precipitation development, as the air rising cools and condenses to form clouds. This area of enhanced vorticity looks to hang around until Thursday, making Tuesday through Thursday the highest chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Looking at the temperatures for the next few days, it looks to remain about average, meaning highs in the low to mid 90s most days, cooling off anytime we get any precipitation.
In terms of precipitation expected over the next 7 days, expect mostly closer to around 1″, with localized higher amounts if any particular location gets a heavier thunderstorm or shower.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Sunny with a 10-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy with lows in the mid 70s. Wind calm.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 90s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Wind calm.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 50-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in low 90s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low 70s. Wind calm.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 50-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s. Wind south at 5mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the low 70s. Wind south at 5mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Wind south at 5mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the low 70s. Wind calm.
Friday
Sunny with a 20-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the low 70s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the mid 70s.
