Morning everyone and happy Friday! For the weather story this week, we are continuing to track convective rainfall chances, with temperatures expected to remain around average thanks to the increased cloud cover from rainfall and any upper-level ridges not being directly over our region at any point in time.
As usual, we will begin with a look at the current synoptic picture, and break down the rest of the week.
Currently at the upper-levels, we have two main upper-level ridges dominating our weather pattern. As you can see from the image, we are not directly under any particular one of them and in between both of them. This had lead to more seasonable temperatures this past week, with notable amounts of rainfall. The reason for this being that the closer you are to the center of a ridge, the greater the influence it has on a region, meaning more sunshine and less precipitation given the subsidence or downward vertical motion the closer to the center.
For today, generally the theme continues given a similar upper-level pattern, temperatures right around average being in the lower 90s for high temperatures. It will generally be a bit cooler heading closer to the coast, as the breeze off of the Gulf will keep temperatures into the upper 80s.
In terms of precipitation for today, the best chances continue to be further to the south where we have a more prominent sea-breeze boundary. However, the chances are still isolated at best, with the HRRR model showing limited activity for today given the lack of any greater scale forcing for storms to fire off.
Beginning to look into the weekend and throughout next week, our main weather story will continue to be influences from the upper-level ridge, although the ridge will not be completely over us, leading to a continuation of the daily chances of daytime-heating based thunderstorms.
On Tuesday evening, there is a chance to see a slight enhancement for shower activity, as we get more northerly flow into the region and vorticity advection into our region. Generally speaking, this voriticty advection helps with rising motion to form clouds and precipitation.
Otherwise, day-time heating type storms will prevail, and expect precipitation amounts to be from 1-to-1.5″ on average with of course chances for isolated higher amounts under any heavier thunderstorms and showers.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind southeast at 5mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear with lows in the lower 70s.
Saturday
Sunny with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind southeast at 5mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind southeast at 5mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Wind southeast at 5mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 70s.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 50-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind south at 5mph.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.
Wednesday
Sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the lower 70s.
Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 70s.
