I just want to run some quick numbers by everyone as the State of Mississippi continues to re-open.
| Dates | New Cases | Estimated Currently Sick |
| 05/07/20 | 404 | 3,937 |
| 05/08/20 | 288 | 3,944 |
| 05/09/20 | 123 | 3,783 |
| 05/10/20 | 173 | 3,763 |
| 05/11/20 | 234 | 3,814 |
| 05/12/20 | 182 | 3,748 |
| 05/13/20 | 393 | 3,914 |
| 05/14/20 | 318 | 3,986 |
| 05/15/20 | 322 | 3,911 |
| 05/16/20 | 173 | 3,855 |
| 05/17/20 | 136 | 3,882 |
| 05/18/20 | 272 | 3,827 |
| 05/19/20 | 263 | 3,760 |
| 05/20/20 | 255 | 3,798 |
| 05/21/20 | 402 | 3,938 |
You may ask, “Where did you get those numbers?” And that is a great question.
The number of news cases per day is pulled directly from the Mississippi Department of Health website. The numbers of “Still Sick” is an estimate of people still sick if we assume that the illness lasts two weeks. And while for some it lasts longer, and others it is shorter, the average is 14 days, according to the CDC.
The numbers from the last two weeks show that the same number of people are “Still Sick” today as there were two weeks ago.
That means, in a sense, we have flattened the curve. And that is good news! The numbers aren’t increasing dramatically, which is the best news.
But it isn’t all good news. The problem is that the same number of people are sick with it this week as there were last week and two weeks ago.In fact, we’ve had – at least – 3,500 people “still sick” since April 30th. That means for the last three weeks we continue to replace every “better” person with a new “sick” person.
While the curve is flat… that still doesn’t “seem” like a win to me.
“But Nick! That’s just an estimate, you can’t actually know that! Plus we are testing more!”
You’re spot on. Don’t worry. I’m not trying to get ‘too big for my britches’ here. Perhaps there are far more people getting better faster. But perhaps not. You’re right that we don’t know. That is why I really want to stress that this is just an estimate.
Looking at the number of deaths per day, on a running two-week average, there are currently 13.4 deaths per day compared to 14.3 deaths per day two weeks ago. So that is relatively unchanged, too.
So yes, we are testing more and we are able to find more people with the virus. But that hasn’t changed how many people are dying from the illness. Looking back to April 30th, three weeks ago, it was killing – on average – 10.1 people per day. So it is still killing more people, per day, today than it was three weeks ago.
So, if people are going to be out and about, I do hope they realize that just because things are open, doesn’t mean everything is fine now.
“Yeah, well, 3,900 people out of 3 million isn’t that big of a deal.”
That’s a fair point. It is a tiny fraction of the overall population of Mississippi. And there are “hotspots” where the virus is more prevalent than others, too.
But let’s look at a hotspot: Forrest County. Forrest County is about 470 square miles. And there have been 462 confirmed cases in the county.
That means one positive case for nearly every square mile of the county. That is pretty crazy to think about.
But that is total cases. What about right now?
Let’s go back to the estimate. The 3,900 Mississippians that may be sick right now. Well the state is about 48,000 sq miles. So that puts one sick person – right now – for every about 16 sq miles. And the average person travels about 29 miles per day, according to the Bureau of Transportation.
Again, there are hotspots, and some places are less likely to have the virus than others. But that is why social distancing and limiting travel is key right now. And why the CDC and local governments are urging folks to avoid unnecessary trips and travel.
“So, what, are we just supposed to keep everything shut down, Nick?”
I don’t have the answer to that question. That is for lawmakers to decide. My job is to look at facts and numbers. My hope, though, is that as people get back to normal – or whatever normal is now – that they keep these kinds of things in mind. There is a reason that social distancing still matters, why we are all asked to wear masks, and why washing your hands thoroughly is still a good idea.
These asks aren’t being pitched by some tyrannical government bent on overreach, but rather based on medical professionals and scientists. And math. With the hope that it keeps every next person safer. And healthier.
Is it annoying to carry a mask around? Totally. Is it difficult to understand people wearing one? At times. Do I really – REALLY! – want to go to a baseball game. YES.
But right now, it is still too easy to pass the virus along to others. And there are still a decent number of sick people. So we all have to chip in and do our part to help.
Real Quick
To reiterate, this is all back-of-the-napkin math. An estimate. But I just want folks to be safe while you’re out and about. I’ve been too many places in the last few days where people are acting like the virus isn’t a problem, nor a concern.
And truly, it may not be for you. But for others, it may still be a problem. And, if there is one thing I’ve learned about Mississippians, it is that you take care of each other when times are tough.
And right now, times are tough.
