The shortwave that gave us possible rain chances this evening is currently moving through the southeast giving us much cooler and drier temperatures for tomorrow. However, rain and severe weather chances are possible going into the middle of next week.
A fairly strong high pressure system will set camp only for a short day or so with a lot of northern flow at the surface bringing us some much cooler weather for late in April. Northerly flow from the surface will give us some cooler temperatures, however the surface high will move east as the trough in the Southwest is beginning to form. With it, one round then another round of storms will hit both Wednesday and Thursday.
The main thing that’s troubling with this round of storms is that even the Storm Prediction Center doesn’t quite know what to do with these. A few of the factors do look promising for the potential of severe weather, but other factors look either too extreme or not organized enough. Looking at Wednesday, surface instability looks good to spark storms, however low-level shear is looking fairly low which could keep anything severe from developing. Thursday looks to be slightly more threatening with a few more ingredients on its side, but some, like instability, look a bit more extreme. Dew point is also very high which is a better indicator compared to Wednesday. Wind shear looks a bit more straightline with the trough turning more positive as it passes through Louisiana. Potential threats would be straightline winds and hail if conditions are favorable.
Friday we’ll see a break with the rain with the trough moving towards the Atlantic. Looking at the GFS vs the European models, they both show a closed low pressure system rotating in the North plains, however the Euro is showing a possible second low developing that would bring more rain. The GFS is showing more scattered rain chances with the rain coming through at night. Sunday is looking a lot better with the low on its way out.
Stay tuned for Nick to give you updates on the mid-week severe weather chances and have a good week!
Regional Day-to-day Forecast
Tonight – Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. North northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday – Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. East wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the morning. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night – Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind around 5 mph.
Thursday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. East wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Thursday Night – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday – Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Friday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
Saturday – Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Saturday Night – A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Sunday – Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
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