Big hail, strong tornado possible says SPC

Interesting wording from the SPC. At the time of this Discussion a tornado was on the ground in this outlined area.

Mesoscale Discussion 0736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Areas affected…east-central TX Panhandle

Concerning…Tornado Watch 220…

Valid 162156Z – 162300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 220 continues.

SUMMARY…The risk for very large to giant hail (2-3.5 inches in
diameter) and tornadoes will increase nonlinearly (22-00Z). A
large/intense (EF3+ capable) tornado is possible (23-02Z) given the
strengthening low-level shear, very large buoyancy, and the mature
phase of a quasi-discrete supercell.

DISCUSSION…Radar imagery shows a north-south cluster of supercells
over the eastern TX Panhandle which have moved east of the dryline.
OK and West TX mesonet observations show dewpoints in the 66-69
degrees F range and temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80.
Very strong backing of low-level flow, perhaps partially induced by
parent storms to the west, has enlarged the low-level hodograph size
during the past 30 minutes from Childress County to Wheeler County
with 2-4 mb/hour falls in the past 2 hours. RAP forecast soundings
show 0-1 km SRH increasing from 150 m2/s2 to 350 m2/s2 (locally
higher and augmented by storms) during the 22-00Z period. As the
low-level shear continues to increase over the next couple of hours,
expect with medium to higher confidence of a large/intense tornado
—potentially capable of EF3+ intensity— evolving from supercell
cluster in Wheeler/Gray/Collingsworth counties.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/16/2017

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…OUN…LUB…AMA…

LAT…LON 35220072 35510031 35429986 34969988 34710057 35220072



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.