Because: 2020. Am I right?
This morning, NOAA released their update to the seasonal prediction for tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. The numbers aren’t “incredibly” higher, but the increase does mean there is a higher chance that we get through the entire list of names for only the second time on record.
Not great news for those living along the Gulf Coast. NOAA is now forecasting 19-to-25 named storms with 7-to-11 hurricanes and 3-to-6 major hurricanes.
“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, Gerry Bell, said.
Warm waters is one reason. The potential for La Nina is another. July was noted to have the second-lowest wind shear across the Atlantic basin on record.
The record? Back in 2005.
That is one reason Colorado State increased their seasonal forecast, too.
From CSU:
Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal, and vertical wind shear is well below average. Current cool neutral ENSO conditions may transition to weak La Niña conditions by later this summer. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
The forecast looks like this:
Colorado State forecasters suggest 10 more hurricanes this season and five major hurricanes.
