Good Tuesday morning! Thanks to some tropical mischief that we’ve been discussing for some time now, the pattern is wet and mild. Today, we’re going to see some hot weather still lingering around, with temperatures in the low 90s. Not bad at all compared to what some of us have seen, but still hotter than what we’re going to be seeing.
As far as beach weather is concerned, it’s going to be downright nasty. Sorry to say it, but this isn’t a great time to soak up any sunshine. If rainy beach days are your thing, then get out and enjoy it!
When we talk about tropical systems in the Gulf, a lot of times we worry about waves or rip currents. But, the NWS in Mobile isn’t forecasting a higher risk of rip currents between now and Friday, though they can develop at any time so it’s important to be wary of them.
The Nearshore Wave Prediction System, ran by the NWS, isn’t showing crazy high waves either, likely due to the fact that the tropical system is very weak and unorganized.
Waves of up to two feet for areas like Gulf Shores, and the barrier islands, shouldn’t be anything out of the ordinary, which is good news. One more beach weather fact to keep in mind is that our area is going to have a daily enhanced threat of lightning. Lightning is one of the weather’s biggest killers, so it’s important to stay away from the water when lightning is nearby!
Looking into our forecast discussion, it’s going to be really dominated by a stationary front stalled out in the Gulf of Mexico. This feature may spin up a weak tropical depression, and bring heavy rains to the South TX/Southwest LA coast. For our area, the most concentrated heavy rains won’t affect us, but we will definitely see lots of precipitation.
On top of recent heavy rains, this could lead to some flooding issues. The Weather Prediction Center does have our region in a marginal risk of flash flooding today and tomorrow. Since the upper level winds are pretty weak, storms won’t be in a big hurry to move. This is partly responsible for the flooding threat, since it may rain for a long time over a certain spot.
Given extremely high moisture in the atmosphere, there is an additional threat for strong thunderstorms today. It shouldn’t be a big deal, but there could be some wet microbursts in storms-rapidly descending packages of rain and wind that can cause localized damage.
Above is the radar estimate from the HRRR computer weather model for this evening, around 6pm. Looks like thunderstorms will fire off somewhere in the middle of this area, as the sea/land breeze circulation gives the atmosphere a little extra push to start forming storms.
This model also shows some strong storms, with one North of Mobile. The exact location should be taken with a big grain of salt, but we could see some strong storms out there today, so keep an eye out for really dark clouds. Severe weather is unlikely.
Looking at the same time tomorrow, it looks like the storms are a lot more scattered, and probably not as intense. It does look like today will feature the worst of the storms and heavy rain.
Looking at the upper level chart forecast for Thursday, we can see a big shift from recent weeks. Now, the ridge is displaced to our East and North. The blue squiggly line is an area of extended ridging, sort of a leg of the main high pressure.
The main feature responsible for the change is the low pressure system to our West, towards Texas. This may or may not be a tropical system, but either way the impacts for us should be the same. After some slightly drier air in the Northern part of this region, the Low pressure to our West will allow warm, and moist air to freely flow into the Gulf Coast. Abnormally hot Gulf waters are also increasing the moisture content, so we have one nice extended rain event coming.
Above is a PWAT map, which is a rough estimate of the amount of water in the atmosphere over a specific location. Anything over 2”, in the purple-ish color, indicates extreme moisture. There’s quite a bit of it, and the most intense moisture will be moving to the North, flowing across our area.
You might notice, there hasn’t been much mention of heat. Well, that’s mostly by design! After focusing on it for a few weeks, the daily rain chances will really keep our temperatures down, which is always welcome this time of the year.
Outside of today, our temperatures will struggle to hit 90F, which is remarkable for late June.
One cool thing that we can do with the weather is compare the upcoming patterns back to others we’ve seen before, and try to use what happened in the past to predict the future. Well, this map is an example of that. It shows the chances that we’ll see temperatures greater than 90F on Thursday-and our area isn’t even colored in!
Of course, it is the summer, and this won’t last for long. By this weekend, the ridge looks to come back into our lives, and much hotter weather will return. But, for now, we might as well enjoy it.
That’s all I’ve got for a discussion, so let’s take a look at the forecast!
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Partly sunny, with an 80-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Some could be strong, and may produce heavy rain. Highs in the lower-90s. The heat index may reach 102F.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid-70s.
Tomorrow
Mostly cloudy, with a 60-percent chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-80s.
Tomorrow Night
Mostly cloudy, with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, ending before midnight. Lows in the mid-70s.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a 60-percent chance of afternoon rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-80s.
Thursday Night
Partly clear, with a 30-percent chance of evening showers. Lows in the mid-70s.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a 60-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs around 90F.
Friday Night
Partly clear, with a 30-percent chance of evening showers. Lows in the low-70s.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a 70-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s. The heat index may reach 105F.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a 30-percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid-70s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy, with a 50-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-90s. The heat index may reach 107F.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid-70s.
Monday
Partly cloudy, with a 40-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-90s. The heat index may reach 107F.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid-70s.
