Happy Sunday and good morning everybody! I know everyone is tired of hearing the same story over and over again about the oppressive heat and humidity that has been over the southeast for such a period of time, and today will offer a short break from that. Now, don’t get too excited as it will still be hot with temperatures in the mid 90s as is typical for the southeast. But, our forecast area does catch a break from the high dewpoints that make it feel tropical outside.
All in all, it should be a more pleasant day to end the weekend!
In terms of the upper-level synoptic pattern, the ridge that is building through much of the central CONUS is expected to continue to slowly progress eastward. This places SW MS on the downstream side of the ridge axis. As previous forecasts have alluded to, this provides our area with less humid air with origins from northern Canada!
Down at the lower levels, winds will continue to stream from the north during the beginning of the day and then eventually shift to the east. The initial advection of dewpoints from the north will place 850MB dewpoints ranging from 5C (41F) to 14C (57F) throughout the SW MS area.
This allows these lower dewpoints at the higher levels to mix down towards the surface, allowing the humidity to drop for the afternoon and driving away the muggy airmass! Surface dewpoints will be more comfortable, ranging from the lower 50s F to 60F.
High temperatures across the area will range from the lower to mid 90s, with heat index values remaining below 100F for today.
Moving forward into much of the work week, the story remains short and to the point with the forecast area being expected to return to the conditions that were experienced prior to Sunday, with dry conditions, and hot temperatures being the main focus. This is due to the upper-level ridge being placed right over our forecast area.
This strong upper-level ridging over our forecast area provides large synoptic scale subsidence. Subsidence is a fancy term for downward vertical motion. This downward vertical motion prevents any cloud and precipitation formation, which at the surface means hot, dry, and sunny conditions.
With flow around a ridge being anticyclonic (clockwise), this will allow upper-level winds in the beginning of the week to shift out of the south, ushering back in the warm temperatures and high dewpoints, with flow coming from the Gulf of Mexico. The flow continues to almost “wrap around” throughout the week shifting to be from the north, “trapping” the higher moisture over our area. The deep green colors indicate the abundance of moisture that will be over our area.
The end of the week may provide a chance for storms and showers to pass through our region as the upper-level ridge slightly looses strength over our area. However, this is subject to change as the weather is always changing and evolving with time! Otherwise, the rest of the work week will feature hot, sunny, and dry conditions.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Less humid, high temperatures in the mid to low 90s, with heat index below 100F. Sunny with wind northeast at 5 to 10MPH.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 70F. Wind becoming calm.
Monday
Hot and sunny with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index near 100F with wind SE at 5MPH.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the low 70s with a calm wind.
Tuesday
Hot and sunny with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index near 100F. Wind ESE at 5MPH.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the mid 70s. Wind calm.
Wednesday
Hot and sunny with high’s near 100F. Heat index may reach 104F. Wind east shifting to the north at 5MPH.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the mid 70s. Wind ENE 5MPH.
Thursday
Sunny and hot with highs near 100F. Heat index near 105F. Wind north 5 to 10MPH.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Wind becoming calm.
Friday
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance at an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High temperatures near 100F. Heat index near 104F. Wind north 5MPH.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the mid 70s. Wind calm.
Saturday
Mix of sun and clouds becoming cloudy with a 40 percent chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the upper 90s with wind north 5 to 10MPH.
Saturday Night
Lingering showers and storms ending becoming cloudy. Lows in the low to mid 70s. Wind turning south at 5 to 10MPH.
