Busy weather! Wildfire concerns, potential severe weather, and a cool down: Southern MS/AL/LA Weather Forecast – 2/15/22

Not quite as chilly this morning and this is the start of the warming trend over the next few days that will eventually allow for showers and storms to develop and move through the area.

Before we get to the storms, though, there is a Red Flag Warning in effect for most of the area today. That means that wildfires will be able to spread rather easily today given the weather conditions.

On days like today it is important to avoid outdoor burning. No one wants to be responsible for starting a wildfire.

The good news is that the humidity will be increasing tonight and into tomorrow and rain is back in the forecast.

The bad news is it comes from a pretty potent storm system.

The system will be sliding the Southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow for storms to develop along a cold front. That front will press through the Southern MS/AL/LA region Thursday midday and offer a chance for severe weather.

Here is the latest from the SPC:

Moderate to strong mid-level flow is forecast to extend from northern Mexico eastward/northeastward into the Northeast early Thursday. A shortwave trough embedded within this flow is expected to move quickly from central KS/OK northeastward through the Mid MS Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be near the OK/AR border early Thursday before then moving northeast just ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of this low as well as along and just ahead of a dryline extending southward from the low. Low to mid 60s dewpoints are anticipated just ahead of this line, but overall buoyancy will be tempered by the lack of stronger heating and displacement south and east of the cooler mid-level
temperatures. Even so, strong wind fields are expected to support damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a tornado or two.

Uncertainty regarding a continued severe potential increases as the anticipated convective line moves eastward throughout the day. Current guidance shows a moist, but relatively cool air mass across much of the Southeast. The lack of stronger heating will keep instability modest. At the same time, the eastward moving convective line will become further displaced from the stronger forcing for ascent associated with the surface low and its parent shortwave trough. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics and weakening large-scale ascent, strong wind fields will be in place throughout the entire warm sector. These robust kinematics may be able to compensate somewhat for the lacking buoyancy, keeping storms strong to severe as they move eastward across MS and AL. Additionally, only modest heating would be needed to support greater buoyancy and corresponding increase in severe potential.

So, this setup isn’t exactly a “slam dunk” for severe weather, but the potential is there. A bit like the last system, there may be a high ceiling to how strong storms can get, but it will take all the pieces coming together in just the right way. And we can’t know if that will or won’t happen quite yet.

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CIPS Analogs

A brief note about the CIPS data this morning. Looking at the historical analogs, the table shows a handful of ‘booms’ but also a good number of ‘busts’ too.

This means we may be looking at another “boom or bust” severe weather event. So tracking the low-level moisture and instability will be very important.

Systems like this being instability-starved (so to speak) is pretty typical. But given the atmospheric energy, in this case if we do get enough ‘umph’ down low, it means the potential for significant severe weather would increase pretty quickly.

And you can see that on the probabilistic CIPS data. This is different than the historical data. This is taking the historical data nad then applying some forecasting techniques to it and allowing the computer to predict where it thinks severe weather will occur.

Since we are letting a computer do the heavy lifting, this type of forecast isn’t as accurate as one from the SPC or a local meteorologist (like me!) but it is a good guide to use when trying to identify where storms will ahve the potential to turn severe.

On top of that, we can ask the CIPS data where the highest likelihood for tornadoes will be, too.

And, as you can see pretty clearly, Mississippi is plop in the middle of the highest risk.

Again, this is allowing the compute to do the heavy lifting, so there is some places where it will struggle. But I think this is a good starting block for figuring out where the highest risk for severe weather will be.

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Timeline & Threats

Here is a first look at the imeline and threats. This will likely change a bit during the next 48 hours, but hopefully will give everyone a good idea about when to be most cautious with the weather.

7a-10a — Instability showers will be widespread with a few storms across parts of southeast Louisiana. Severe weather is less likely during this time period, but not impossible. Main concerns with storms during this time period will be…
– Heavy rain
– Lightning
– Gusty wind

10a-1p — Showers and storms, some severe, move across southeastern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi. Main threats with storms during this time will be…
– Very heavy rain
– Brief localized flash flooding
– Frequent lightning
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Hail up to the size of quarters
– Tornadoes (up to EF-3 in strength)

1p-4p — Storms ending for Louisiana and parts of southern Mississippi while eastern counties of southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama still deal with storms. Some severe. Main threats with storms during this time will be…
– Very heavy rain
– Localized flash flooding
– Frequent lightning
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Hail up to the size of quarters
– Tornadoes (up to EF-3 in strength)

4p-7p — Storms moving out of the area. Some lingering storms across parts of Alabama. Main concerns with storms during this time period will be…
– Heavy rain
– Frequent lightning
– Gusty wind
– Small hail

And again, this timeline may change by an hour or two – perhaps even three – so please keep tabs on the forecast in the coming days.

In total about 0.5″ to 2″ of rain look most likely. The averaged out estimates from teh NBM model show most areas with about 1″ of rainfall.

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Day to Day Forecast

Today
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Breezy this afternoon. Southeast winds around 5 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight
Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows in the upper 40s.

Wednesday
Partly cloudy with a few showers possible. Highs in the lower 70s. Breezy. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance for rain around 20-percent

Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Warmer. Lows in the upper 50s. Breezy. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. The chance of rain 30-percent.

Thursday
Cloudy with showers and storms likely. Some storms may be severe with wind gusts exceeding 50mph and the potential for a tornado. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds around 15 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. The chance of rain is around 90-percent.

Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. Colder. Lows in the upper 30s.

Friday
Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Cooler. Highs in the mid 50s.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.

Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.

Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.

Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Warmer. Lows in the upper 40s.

Washington’s Birthday
Mostly cloudy with a few showers and storms possible. Highs in the lower 70s. The chance of rain 30-percent.