Calm through Saturday, then a soggy Sunday: Southern MS/AL/LA Weather Forecast – 1/31/24

More sunshine today with some passing clouds. Nothing disruptive expected today or tomorrow. And, in fact, Friday should be pretty nice, too.

The change arrives as we move through Saturday evening and into the overnight hours into Sunday morning. A system will slide through and we may actually get clipped by an occluded front.

I know you’re probably asking, “What is an occluded front?! I know cold front and I know warm front, Nick. Never heard of an occluded front!”

An occluded front is basically a place where a cold front ‘catches up’ to a warm front. If you were to look up the definition in a textbook, it might read like, “An occluded front occurs when a cold front overtakes a warm front, lifting the warm air mass off the ground. This interaction often results in complex weather patterns, typically leading to prolonged periods of precipitation and cloudiness. The occluded front is a key feature in the later stages of a cyclone’s development, symbolizing the merging of cold and warm air masses.”

For us, this doesn’t often happen because we have pretty well-defined warm fronts and cold fronts and most of the weather systems that pass through are not in the later-stages of life, they are usually just getting to maturity.

What does an occluded front look like? Well, it looks like a fair bit of moderate rainfall for us.

Estimated radar image for Sunday afternoon // Courtesy: Pivotal wEather

This shouldn’t mean widespread flooding, but some spots may end up with some standing water here and there. At the very least, it will mean a soggy Sunday. And because this is an occluded front, it means the area of low pressure will be nearby and it may be a bit breezy.

Monday morning estimated radar // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather
Tuesday morning estimated radar // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

By the time we get to Tuesday, things should start to clear out and relax a bit. Then we wait for the next system to arrive as we move through the following weekend.

Here is a look at the storm system timeline:

While we will have – at least – isolated showers from about 4p Saturday through 10p Sunday, most of the heaviest and widespread rain will happen overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning.



REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s. East winds around 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. South winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable.

Friday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.

One thought on “Calm through Saturday, then a soggy Sunday: Southern MS/AL/LA Weather Forecast – 1/31/24

  1. You know, I’ve always wanted to ask you what an occluded front was, but couldn’t get the nerve. LOL

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