LEt me tell you about a journey! I left my mom’s house yesterday around 10am and didn’t get back home until around 1215am last night / tomorrow morning.
Because of that, I let NQLBOT do the forecast this morning. And be warned, he is a bit verbose, today.
Here we go…..
Today and Tonight: Most of the rain has already moved north and east of our region this morning. However, you might still see a few isolated showers throughout the morning. As the main weather system moves across our area today, it could trigger some isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms, especially in the northern and eastern parts. These storms are not expected to be severe, as the atmosphere isn’t overly moist or unstable.
This afternoon, the air will start to dry out, and we’ll see the showers and clouds move eastward, clearing up by this evening. Expect mostly clear skies tonight with temperatures dropping to the low 60s.
Wednesday through Monday: The weather pattern over the country will be split into different streams, which is typical for this time of year. We’ll see warmer temperatures rebound into the mid and upper 80s by Wednesday afternoon under mostly clear skies.
From Thursday to Friday, the weather models predict that the winds higher up in the atmosphere from the south will get stronger, and a weather disturbance will move eastward across the southern U.S. This change will increase the chance of severe thunderstorms in our area between Thursday and Friday. Some weather models suggest that storms could start forming over East Texas on Thursday, moving towards central Louisiana and Mississippi by Thursday night, and possibly redeveloping near the central Gulf Coast by Friday evening.
If the storms wait until Friday to arrive, the atmosphere will have more time to become unstable, which could lead to more severe conditions. The weather setup on Friday could support severe storms with strong winds and potentially hail, especially if the instability reaches higher levels as some models suggest.
However, it’s important to note that if storms develop strongly to our west in the Southern Plains earlier in the period, they might move into our area faster and could potentially be quite severe. So, we are watching Thursday evening through Friday as the next window for possible severe weather, with some areas to our southwest already marked at a marginal risk of severe weather before Friday morning and a slight risk afterward in central and southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi.
Besides the risk of severe thunderstorms, the increased moisture in the air could lead to heavy rainfall during these storms. This could result in localized flash flooding, particularly in areas that have seen a lot of rain recently. Places like Richland and Madison parishes down to Clarke and Wayne counties are already quite wet, so a quick 2-3 inches of rain could easily cause flooding.
The unsettled weather should move out by Saturday night, leading to drier and sunnier conditions for the weekend. Looking into next week, it seems likely that temperatures will climb into the lower 90s, which is about 5-10 degrees warmer than usual for this time of year.
Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor these developments and refine our forecasts.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning, then partly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds around 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday: Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.
Monday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.
