The Central American Gyre is making waves again. For now, figuratively. But eventually, this may be literal.
REcall that the Central American Gyre is a large area of lower pressure that can develop at any time during the Atlantic Hurricane Season when the atmospheric conditions are right. It doesn’t always produce tropical systems. Nor does is “turn into” a tropical system. But it can aid in the development of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes.
Philippe Papin, one of the smartest Gyre dudes I’ve come across breaks it down like this:
That is interesting & it may not be coincidental. A lot of #TC genesis in these #CAG cases occur to the NE where you have ample moisture w/ favorable kinematics.
I’m reminded of how #Alberto formed in May from a CAG-like circulation.https://t.co/ilHOF5FelC
— Philippe Papin (@pppapin) October 5, 2018
In recent years the Central American Gyre has helped produce tropical systems during the last three season. In 2017, Hurricane Nate was a result of the Central American Gyre. In 2018, Tropical Storm Alberto and Hurricane Michael formed after being spawned by the Central American Gyre. And in 2019, Invest 91L and Tropical Storm Nestor were a result of the Gyre.
Historically, the Central American Gyre does not usually produce powerful hurricanes, but Hurricane Michael in 2018 shows that it can happen.
Next Week
Model guidance between all of the global ensembles shows that a gyre may form.
Courtesy: Pivotal Weather via GIPHY
Between the GEFS, the EPS and the CMCE, all models show some sort of development between June 5th and 8th. The development of a broader area of low pressure will, in turn, lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms in the area. And as Philippe noted above, that leads to the potential development of clusters of storms breaking off.
Depending on which model you look at, the eventual track, strength, and – in turn – impacts from whatever may develop are still up in the air. Results from run-to-run model output have pushed the eventual system as far east as over cuba and out to sea. And as far west and Lake Charles, Louisiana. And developed it into a Category 3 Hurricane and as wimpy as a disorganized Tropical Depression.
In short, there isn’t enough information available yet to make a clear determination as to what may or may not develop. But the timeframe for potential development looks like between June 4th and June 8th. And then, tracking what develops beyond that point.
What can we do now?
Double check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit. Make sure you’ve got all the supplies you would need during and after a potential hurricane. Things like medicines, food, water, etc.
