Good morning folks! Expect a few lingering showers across the forecast region and partly cloudy skies giving way to more widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will approach 86F with muggy dewpoints around 75F causing the heat index to reach 95F. Stay safe out there by taking frequent breaks and staying hydrated if in the heat, and take shelter indoors if you hear thunder!
An amplified ridge pattern exists over the U.S. with a central area of high pressure over the Rockies and another over the southwestern Atlantic keeping 500mb winds rather weak over Southwest Mississippi today. These weak winds will make today’s showers and thunderstorms slow movers causing a marginal risk for flash flooding in the southern portion of the forecast region.
As this ridge remains amplified, a trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will dig southward bringing with it cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints this weekend; however, the southern extent of this drier air is uncertain at the moment, but may reach Southwest Mississippi.
The top image is the forecasted dewpoints at 7am this Sunday from the GFS model and expects an intrusion of drier air to push well into the forecast region whereas the ECMWF model (2nd image) displays the drier air stalling just north of the region. I don’t expect dewpoints to drop as low as the GFS model suggests, especially for this time of year; however, I do expect some relief from the muggy air on Sunday and Monday. It may not be much, but a 5 degree change in the dewpoint can feel a lot different.
As this amplified ridge persists over the Central/Western U.S. and the trough digs farther south in the East, below average temperatures are becoming more likely for parts of the country and Mississippi within the next two weeks. Although the chances of below average temperatures are relatively low and near average temperatures are more likely, this will be a nice break from the above average temperatures Southwest Mississippi has been experiencing most of this summer.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy with a 70-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 80s. Heat Index values around 95F.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.
Friday
Partly cloudy with a 60-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the upper 80s. Heat Index values around 98F.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat Index values around 97F.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the upper 80s.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the upper 80s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
