It is a chilly morning for any folks, with temperatures hovering around 30 degrees. But don’t let this morning trick you into thinking Winter is going to stick around this week. We are looking at a reasonable warm up in the coming days with a chance for storms by Thursday.
The Storm Prediction Center started highlighting the area a few days ago with a chance for severe weather on Thursday. And not much has changed. The SPC is still highlighting the same area with the potential for severe weather.
Same day, same time period.
Like always, A reminder that just because we can see the potential for severe weather farther away doesn’t, necessarily, mean storms will be any more potent. It is just that over time you learn that certain scenarios often open the door for storms and the potential for severe weather. And we continue to get better and better at ID’ing those scenarios further out.
Looking at the CIPS Analogs data, the threat for severe weather lines up pretty closely with what the SPC is forecasting.
While you may see the bullseye across east-central Mississippi, remember that we are letting statistics and a computer figure that out. To follow up on the “just because we can see it doesn’t mean it is going to be worse” comment above, here is a look at some of the analogous years.
Seven of the Top 15 times (almost half!) there is severe weather in atmospheric setups similar to this one, there are no severe weather reports in the Southern MS/AL/LA region.
So, while the general region of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama may see storms, it is still a bit too far away to say one area will definitely see storms and another area will not. Or that storms will be worse in one area than another.
It is something worth monitoring in the coming days. And I would highly recommend folk check back in on the forecast for more info as we head toward Thursday.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows in the upper 40s.
Wednesday
Increasing clouds through the day with a few showers possible. Breezy.. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance for rain around 20-percent.
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with a few showers possible overnight, warmer. Lows in the lower 60s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Thursday
Cloudy with showers and storms likely. Some severe storms possible. Highs in the mid 70s. The chance of rain 70-percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. Much colder. Lows in the upper 30s.
Friday
Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Cooler. Highs in the mid 50s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
