The National Hurricane Center is now keeping tabs on a wide area in the northern Gulf of Mexico for possible development during the next five days. The area is where a cold front is set to move through and wash out. As the front washes out, there is the potential for an area of low pressure to develop in the Gulf.
From the NHC:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located offshore of the coast of east-central Florida.
1. A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, conditions could become marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development as it moves slowly northeastward through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
The good news is that this isn’t a surprise. This is something we’ve been highlighting for a while. I even joked on Twitter last week that I was displeased with the model guidnace suggesting a new low would develop.
No. pic.twitter.com/cEOWXpVJev
— Nick Lilja (@NickLilja) July 17, 2019
For now, the chances of development are pretty low, and even if something did develop, the overall setup – according ot model guidance – during the next week will not be overly-favorable for strengthening.
But it demands our attention, for sure.
