Colder Amarillo weather turns stormy – perhaps severe

Wow, it’s cold this morning! After a few flurries and some sticking snow last night across the northern tier of the Texas panhandle and across the Oklahoma panhandle – clear skies let all of the heat from yesterday radiate into the atmosphere.

Temperatures range form the single digits to the low 20s this morning across the high plains.

Temperatures will only rebound into the 30s and 40s this afternoon in most spots – but don’t worry. After a arctic plunge the panhandles will start to settle back into a more “regalare” spring pattern as the week comes to an end.

By the time Easter Sunday rolls around we won’t be tracking snowflakes and wind chills. It’s looking more like drylines and hail.

Scenario

As the area transitions to a more zonal flow there will be a boost in the temperatures aided by a downslope flow off the front-range of the Rockies. Embedded within that zonal flow is an opportunity weak upper-level troughs to move through (Think of this as pockets of cold air above us). As they glide over the top of the area it will increase instability out ahead of our next system increasing the chances for thunderstorms.

Based on the latest computer weather models, it looks like strong storms will be possible. In fact, there is even the threat of some severe weather as the atmospheric dynamics look to be capable of supporting a few isolated severe cells. The main threats – as of now – would be strong winds and hail on Friday and Saturday. But as we linger into Easter Sunday and Monday that could change.

Quick Breakdown

On Thursday, winds from the northeast will begin to usher in moisture behind a weak cold front. Despite the cold front, temperatures will warm modestly, into the 60s, in comparison to Wednesday. The winds will shift to southeast into Friday.

The southeast winds will continue to usher in moisture and warm air under a pocket of cold air aloft that is projected to move through durin g the afternoon Friday.

This will increase instability into the afternoon. Latest computer weather models show a weak dry-line trying to form in some of the western counties of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles that will act as a focal-point for some of this instability.

Then we have an encore performance on Saturday – sort of.

Saturday we will have another pocket of cold air aloft, but as it looks right now, the setup won’t be quite as favorable at the surface.

By Sunday, if everything that is projected right now holds, we would be looking at severe weather chances area wide with isolated tornadoes not out of the question.

Now… in saying all of that. Last year we had a VERY similar scenario and nothing could break the cap aloft, and when it did we lacked upper-level forcing. The old, “We can get two things but not the other one… And if we got the one, we couldn’t get the other two.”

But keep an eye to the forecast. As we get closer, like always, we’ll have a better handle on everything.

For the Wx-Curious

At this point, if you are still reading chances are you are a little more into the weather than most. So here is a detailed look at what makes this setup so interesting.

Thursday is probably the least interesting. As a cold front plows through it will shift winds and usher in more moisture. Basically we are “setting the table” on Thursday for what is to come as we head into the weekend.

But take a look at the winds. As the front slides through he shift to the northeast begins the entrance of moisture. As the air pushes from somewhere at about 1,500ft above sea-level to about 3,500ft above sea-level it cools and condenses. That is why some times winds from the northeast give the Texas panhandle fog.

As Thursday turns to Friday, the winds shift back to the southeast. This will start to usher in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That mixed with an area of low-pressure well – WELL – to the west will increase our chances for some thunderstorms.

As stated above, Friday is when we really start to get into the chances for thunderstorms. Right now it’s a waiting game to see if there will be enough forcing / an erosion of the cap of warm air to allow thunderstorms to develop. The surface and mid-level soundings look sufficient to initiate thunderstorms, but at 300mb the atmosphere doesn’t look quite as conducive to thunderstorm development.

Take a look! Often at 300mb we are looking for isobars (the lines on the map) to be spreading apart. Think of that like opening the door to allow the warmer air at the surface to move up (warm air rises) and fill that void. As it moves up it cools, condenses, and forms clouds, rain, thunderstorms and severe weather – not necessarily in that order.

Meanwhile, at the surface the surface CAPE values will be between 300J/kg and 700J/kg. Plus, Bulk Shear values are projected to be between 30 and 40kts.

Friday, severe weather is a possibility, but given those numbers, not an imminent threat.

Saturday, we are in the reverse boat… Does that make sense?

Instead of the low-level computer weather model projections suggesting severe weather, we are looking an environment better suited for thunderstorm development aloft.

CAPE Values across much of the panhandles will be at or below 300J/kg with bulk shear between 15 and 35kts. In fact, the main bulk of the CAPE/Shear will be in western Oklahoma. But! Aloft we are seeing divergence in the atmosphere which would more easily allow warm air to rise and form into clouds.

So again, if we have one, we don’t have the other… and vice versa.

That being said, on Saturday, the computer weather models are suggesting a well-defined dryline in the eastern counties of the Texas panhandle. Should the CAPE values, and bulk shear values change, we could be looking at a severe weather threat.

If I was forced to lean one way or the other, I would say that the better bet for discrete supercells and a threat of severe weather would be Friday as opposed to Saturday, but we will have to wait and see.

Sunday. Oh, Bloody Sunday… Okay, U2 references aside, we could – one year later – be in for another round of severe weather.

As the upper-level low responsible for the previous days hiccups with thunderstorms moves closer the “hiccups” will turn to more of a cough.

As a dryline sharpens across the Texas panhandle, CAPE values and bulk shear values look to be sufficient for severe weather development. Right now, the GFS computer weather model suggests CAPE values between 600J/kg and 1500J/kg in the afternoon across the eastern counties. Bulk shear will be well above 35kts.

Plus, at 700mb vertical velocity is shown to be above 6-ub/s. That equates out to about 6cm/s which can transport air – vertically – about 200+ meters in an hour.

There will also be sufficient divergence aloft at 300mb to give all of that rising air – with moisture, too – a place to go.

So, as it looks right now, Sunday and into Monday morning could be the day we need to really be looking at, instead of Friday and Saturday.

Not, like I always say, we are about a week away from all of this. Things are likely to change. In fact, Things are nearly guaranteed to change. As the weekend gets closer I will try to get a map with the areas to watch for closest for severe weather development.

But, because we are here for YOU… We watch every day closely.