It’ll be a pretty chilly night tonight as overnight lows bottom out in the upper 20s across the area. Some folks may even squeeze down into the mid 20s in the low-lying areas.
This is some pretty cold air in place. About 10 days ago this air was hanging around in the Arctic Circle. Literally. The NOAA HYSPLIT Model, which looks at the “reverse trajectory” of the air, shows that the air up around 3,500ft was up north of Alaska about 10 days ago. Our air at the surface is imported from the Northwestern Territories.
Cold stuff!
This chilly air has settled in and will be with us for a few days. Not “dangerous” cold during the day, but you will definitely want a jacket if you’re out and about. Overnight, it will only be dangerous to those who don’t have adequate shelter and heat — that includes pets and livestock. So please do what you can to check on folks – and animals – to make sure they have access to some warmer temperatures overnight. Lows will bottom out in the mid to upper 20s tonight, tomorrow night and Wednesday night.
By Thursday morning, we should start to warm up. Though, it’ll still be cold. Highs will still only manage the mid 40s. The main difference by Thursday is a shot for rain. And a cold rain. A really cold rain.
In fact, for some, we may start Thursday morning with a brief round of Freezing mist and drizzle for a few hours before we climb above freezing pretty quickly once the sun comes up. And a southerly wind starts to blow.
Right now, I think any risk for freezing drizzle will be north of HWY 84 and west of I-59. And will end by 8am Thursday morning. Any accumulations would be confined to a very light sheen on exposed surfaces – including overpasses and bridges. But once the sun comes up, everything after that looks to be liquid.
This may change a bit in the coming days, but based on the latest available data right now, that’s how it looks to shake out. Currently only 5 of the 51 ensemble members of the EPS show a shot for below 33F and a better than 30-percent chance for rain.
I know what you’re thinking, “Hey, wait just a second, Nick! If this air is imported from the Arctic Circle… Where is our snow!”
A great question. And unfortunately. your snow chances got ‘cut off at the pass’ so to speak. Because as this next system comes swinging through with our shot for rain, it is bringing some Pacific air with it.
So, while our surface air will be imported from almost Siberia… our air up around 3,500ft will be from south of the Aleutian Islands and heavily modified by the Pacific.
That means we will have a chunk of warmer air between the mid 30s at the surface and the snowflake producing teens and single digits aloft.
The skew-T chart shows this pretty well. Identifying that “Rain” is the most likely – but not guaranteed – precip type. The Dendritic Growth Zone will be plowing ahead up around 18,000ft, but the “warm nose” of air around 9,000ft will melt any snowflakes that are floating around.
The cool part is this may make the clouds look very white while it is raining. The uncool part (sorry kid!) is Frosty the Snowman won’t likely pay a visit.
We should dry out by Friday night, but remain cool through the weekend.
WHAT COULD CHANGE?
I get this question a lot and it is a good one to ask during any kind of anomalous weather event. The short answer is, “Some stuff, it depends.” The longer answer is that the specific trajectory of this next system is not set in stone yet.
So here is a reasonable, but still unlikely, worse-case scenario: If it (1) takes a slightly more southerly trek and (2) also speeds up, while (3) not strengthening in the Gulf… we could see the chance for some sleet pellets and freezing rain a bit farther south (all the way down to about HWY 98.
But that increasingly unlikely scenario is, well, unlikely.
Even so, we are talking about three to six hours of light freezing drizzle and tiny sleet pellets before 7am on Thursday from HWY 98 northward. Meager accumulations at best but would mean exposed surfaces, bridges and overpasses, and shaded areas would be potential slick spots for a few hours.
But I want to stress that is unlikely.
The more likely scenario is that is moves a bit more northward, keeps its current speed and strengthens in the Gulf. That means more overrunning warmth and more rain — a cold, cold rain — for most of the area. Folks north of I-20 may still have a few hours of Wintry Riff-Raff, but that would be about it.
Even Jackson’s shot for below 33 and a 30% shot for rain isn’t looking great:
Though, to be fair, I think that risk is increasing. Not a ton, but certainly is higher than this model guidance suggests.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming mostly sunny. Much cooler with highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Cold with lows in the upper 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Cold with lows in the upper 20s. North winds around 5 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Cold with lows in the mid 20s.
Thursday: Clouds with showers and drizzle starting in the morning. Highs in the upper 40s. Chanve for rain around 30 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower 30s.
Friday: Rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Cold with lows around 30. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid 50s.
