We’re in for another day of stable weather as a high-pressure system dominates the region. This high-pressure area sits firmly over us, bringing with it calm and clear conditions. While temperatures will remain above normal, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to the middle 90s, there’s a noticeable drop in humidity. Dew points are mixing down into the 50s, leading to drier air.
While this might make it feel more comfortable, it also increases the risk of wildfires. When you combine the warmth, very dry ground conditions, and sustained east-southeast winds at 5-10 mph (with occasional gusts of 15-20 mph), it’s important to remain cautious about the elevated wildfire danger today.
Late Wednesday night, we anticipate an influx of moisture, with surface dew points reaching the mid to upper 60s and a significant increase in precipitable water. This moisture surge is likely to trigger rain chances, beginning in the western parts of our area after midnight and spreading to the central regions throughout Thursday. As the upper-level support shifts to the northeast, the cold front is expected to stall just northwest of our area on Thursday evening.
However, a more substantial shortwave will be descending from the Northern Plains, bringing a reinforcing surge of cold and dry air on Friday. This will finally push the cold front through our region before sunrise on Saturday. Although rain chances will expand across the entire area on Friday and Friday night, the rainfall amounts are expected to be light, with an average of less than one-tenth of an inch
With minimal rainfall expected, the concern for fire danger will persist, especially when considering the potential for gusty winds as the cooler air mass enters our area. This reinforcing shot of cool, dry air will bring the chilliest temperatures of the season. Saturday morning lows will be in the 50s for most location.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 60s. East winds around 5 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 90. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Friday: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs around 80.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Cooler with lows around 50.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows in the upper 40s.
Columbus Day: Sunny. Highs around 80.
