Good morning, and happy Sunday!
As the synoptic pattern across the country gets a little bit more exciting this week, some warmer and drier weather is expected through around Wednesday, before an upper-level low to the north introduces some cooler temperatures and an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms to close out the week.
Current Synoptic Picture, General Pattern Overview
Right now, the Central Gulf States are caught between an upper-level high pressure centered over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, and an upper-level low currently developing over Maine. As we progress through the week, the upper-level ridge over the Central US will shift westward, heating up the Northwest in the process, and allowing the upper-level trough get more comfortable in the Southeast, where it will be accompanied by a decrease in temperatures.
By Thursday, most of the Eastern United States is under the effect of negative geopotential height anomalies, which corresponds to cooler temperatures and greater chances for rain, particularly along the flow that separates the upper-level ridge and the upper-level trough. One interesting and important feature to note is the development of a secondary geopotential height minima over the Ohio Valley.
By the end of next week, however, the widespread region of negative height anomalies will significantly shrink as the upper-level low in the Eastern United States weakens, with only a small upper-level low likely in the Mid-West. The American GFS model is also hinting at the return of the sub-tropical ridge extending form the Atlantic westward over the Gulf of Mexico as the upper-level low continues to weaken into the following week.
What This Means In Our Neck of The Woods
At the moment, with no significant mid- or upper-level features in the region to enhance convection, expect the coverage for showers and thunderstorms to remain spotty in the afternoons, with the temperatures actually increasing through Tuesday as the developing upper-level low around the Great Lakes region will help to drag in some warmer air from the west – even as the upper-level ridge recedes back to the Four Corners Region. This can be seen through the increase in 850mb temperatures from this afternoon to Tuesday afternoon.
By Wednesday, the base of the upper-level trough will flatten out over our area, leading to a more zonal (east-west) flow, which will bring a greater chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front will likely approach the region from the North. This increase in showers and thunderstorms, as well as our position near the upper-level low will help to cool temperatures as well, with highs in the mid-80s likely, as opposed to the low 90s like early this week.
While most of the heaviest rain will likely remain to the north of our region, there are still slight differences in operational models as to whether this upcoming week will feature normal or above-normal precipitation, with the European ECMWF model taking the wetter route.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy skies with a 30-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy skies with a 30-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the upper 80s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy skies with a 30-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the low 90s.
Wednesday
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 50-percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm, particularly in the afternoon. Expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy skies likely, with a 50-percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Friday
Mostly cloudy skies likely, with a 50-percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the low-to-mid-80s.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy skies likely, with a 60-percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the low-to-mid-80s.
