Still looking dry around here. Not much has changed with the forecast, except that the NHC doubled back on the potential for development in the Gulf. After downgraded this to just a “low” chance for development yesterday morning, this morning it now has a “high” chance of development.
The reason? Well, it was probably best outlined by Eric Webb on Twitter. Here is one of his graphics he used to explain:
Without getting too into the weeds at 5am, the puzzle pieces basically aligned in a way that gave the wave a bit of a bump in organization. Not a “big” bump, but juuuuust enough to give the NHC a reason to give this little guy a high chance for development now.
The most likely destination for this wave is Central America, as model guidnace continues to point things toward Honduras and Nicaragua. But it still deserves some attention during the next few days, just in case it decides to gain some latitude.
Some of the ensemble and operational guidance is showing a low-end potential that it tries to drift a bit more northward and get into the Bay of Campeche.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
High clouds and diffuse sunshine. Highs in the low 80s.
Tonight
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs around 80.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs around 80.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Columbus Day
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
