Good morning, folks and happy Wednesday! This week, while the pattern does shift around a tad, an increased threat for rain will exist across the region. With this threat for rain comes an increase in cloud cover, which will help to keep the temperatures right around average, despite being under the influence of some upper-level ridging.
Current Synoptic Picture
Per usual, we’ll start with the SPC Mesoscale Analysis 500mb geopotential height map, which shows the northern half of the country still feeling the effects of an upper-level low in northern Canada. In our neck of the woods, however, you’ll notice some subtle troughing across most of the Southeast, with the center of an upper-level ridge over near the Four Corners region.
Due to the weak troughing in the region, the typical afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will continued to be enhanced through late this week, with a bit of a break possible come the weekend as the sub-tropical ridge begins to build into the region from the east.
However, as a boundary still sits just to our north, the chance for showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the region through the weekend.
Just in time for Monday, however, an approaching upper-level low from offshore the Southeast Coast will begin to interact with the stalled boundary to the north of our region, this will gradually enhance the threat for more showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week.
Despite the proximity to both the sub-tropical ridge and the ridge over the Southwest, temperatures will likely remain around average, as the chance for showers and thunderstorms will likely keep temperatures a tad cooler than they would otherwise be.
According to the American Ensemble model, much of the country is expected to see above-average temperatures over the next week, except for some slivers of the southeast where the increased clouds and chances for showers or storms will help to moderate these temperatures.
As far as precipitation goes, despite the greater coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, precipitation is expected to be around average as well.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Some fog possible early, followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies and a 60-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Expect highs in the upper-80s to low 90s.
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with a 50-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Friday
Partly cloudy skies with a 20-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the low 90s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with a 20-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the low 90s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy skies early, followed by mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon with a 50-percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Monday
Mostly cloudy skies with a 70-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, particularly in the afternoon. Expect highs in the upper 80s.
Tuesday
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 50-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
