Flooding threat continues for southern Mississippi

Flooding is likely. That is the word from the Weather Prediction Center at NOAA.

Due to a lot of moisture in the air, the stream of rain coming in off the Gulf of Mexico and a stationary boundary that isn’t moving much at all the area outlined above is looking at flash flooding.

Where there may see a – slight – break is across some of the western counties of Mississippi. But right now the ground is so saturated, it won’t take much rain to see flash flooding.

Here is a look at the radar as of 8:30 AM

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0077
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
906 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED…NORTHERN LA…SOUTHEAST AR…CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MS…SOUTHWEST AL

CONCERNING…HEAVY RAINFALL…FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 111406Z – 111800Z

SUMMARY…DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED AHEAD OF A FRONT
ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION…THE FOCUS OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES…SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST BLENDED
TPW AND CONFIRMED BY THE 12Z KLIX SOUNDING) AND LOW LEVEL FLOW (30
TO 40 KNOT SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 850 MB…PER REGIONAL VWP) CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A BOWING CONVECTIVE SEGMENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL. THE BEST INSTABILITY (WITH SBCAPE
VALUES NEAR 2000
J/KG PER THE 12Z KLIX SOUNDING) LAGS THE BOWING CONVECTIVE
SEGMENT…AS EVIDENCED BY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN LA.

ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SAVE THE 00Z WRF-ARW)
IS TOO SLOW WITH THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THE BOWING
CONVECTIVE BOW)…INSTEAD FOCUSING ON THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST INTO SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS. IN
THE NEAR TERM…THE BEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHOULD BE
FOCUSED ON THE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST
MS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z WRF ARW.

OVERALL…LOCAL RADARS HAVE INDICATED A DECREASE IN HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE REGION…WITH THE HIGHEST RATES OVER
SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHEAST AL. GIVEN TRENDS IN MOISTURE AND
INFLOW…LOCAL 2.00 HOURLY RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE… WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MRMS PRECIPITATION RATE PRODUCT.

FURTHER NORTH…STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEAKENING SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHERN MS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN LA/SOUTHEAST AR/CENTRAL MS. WHILE
THE RAINFALL RATES HERE ARE LOWER…ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING.