The weather is still looking pretty good into the weekend, though a chance for rain has tip-toed intot he forecast for Sunday afternoon. So if you want to make plans to be outside and enjoy the weather, Saturday is your day.
Or just skip work today!
Jokes aside, as we move into Sunday and through next week it does look like there will be a few shots for rain and one chance for some severe weather. So the calm (and very nice weather) will take a break for a few days while we wrestle with Mother Nature.
And while the potential for showers starts Sunday, the more significant weather starts on Monday.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee with a Slight Risk for severe weather for Monday. This is a “2” on the 1-to-5 scale where “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather.
This does line up with where the CIPS Analogs data is showing the potential for severe weather. Looking at both the Operational guidance and the Ensemble data, historically is shows there is the potential for severe weather
Farther south, though, across the Southern MS/AL/LA region, things are looking a little less robust. This is probably why the SPC hasn’t included south of I-20 in parts of the Slight Risk. Instead, tomorrow, they will likely include some sections in a Marginal Risk, a “1” on the same 1-to-5 scale mentioned above.
Looking at the sounding data, and there will be instability, but the area will lack as much shear. That may limit the ability for storms to become better organized, and should limit the severe weather potential.
It isn’t zero. But it should be lower than points a bit farther north.
My bigger concern right now is the risk for some localized flash flooding. Because we will have a chance for rain Monday, and again Tuesday and again Wednesday. The current guidance from the National Blend of Models shows pretty meager rainfall totals next week – despite three consecutive days of rainfall.
But I think there is the potential for totals a bit closer to 3″ to 5″ of rain by the time things are all said and done if things shake out like I am anticipating.
Model guidance is a bit split on things, but it looks like there will be a parade of fronts through the area next week. A cold front Monday, then a warm front Tuesday, and another cold front on Wednesday.
That should allow for three days of rainfall. Not a complete deluge, but chances for rain each day with each front. And going by what CIPS Analogs is showing, that would suggests that, historically, similar situations have produce more than 2″ of rain for sections of the area.
The reason I’m leaning a bit higher than that is if storms line up and train over the same areas, I’m betting we see spots with up to 5″ of rain by the time things are all said and done. Because I’ve noticed over the years that if we are looking at 2″ of rain possible over a large area, there is always some specific spot (that we sadly don’t have the ability to forecast this far out) that gets double that.
The good news is once Wednesday’s rain ends, we dry back out for a few days.
Today
Sunny. Highs around 80.
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Breezy. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30-percent.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with a chance for storms. Some severe. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 80-percent.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with lingering showers possible. Cooler with lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 30-percent.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with more showers possible. Cooler with highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 60-percent.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy with more rain. Lows around 50. Chance of rain 60-percent.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Severe weather looks less likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 60-percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with lingering showers possible. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 30-percent.
Thursday
Mostly sunny. Highs around 65.
