Nice weather today. Great football weather tonight. Fantastic weather this weekend. It is tough to say anything else about the forecast!
We will have a shot for storms by next Tuesday and Wednesday as the next front zips through, but it doesn’t look like a chance for a lot of rain – just some.
Looking at the model guidnace for rainfall during the next seven days, and both the Euro and GFS models show between about 0.5″ and 1.5″ of rain for most spots. Helpful! But not as meaningful as people would hope.
Speaking of rain, I got a text last night from a friend asking about water levels on the Mississippi. I’m sure many of you have heard about – or seen – how low the water levels are. Getting the water levels back up won’t be a “quick fix” with just a few cold fronts through with some rain, sadly. This will take a few months of rain here, rain north and rain/snow way farther north.
The one thing about the increase in extreme weather during the last 20-40 years and how quick we now go from drought to flood, I would estimate that the time before we turn around may take a while, but once we start to see rain/snow in the tributaries of the Mississippi, there will be plenty of water. And we will likely fix this “drought” with a “flood” because, anecdotally, that is what happens.
And excess rainfall isn’t “likely” during the next few months. Looking at the ‘casual’ analogs (La Nina years) for the next few months (Oct-Nov-Dec) it looks drier and warmer than normal. Not great for adding water back to the Mississippi River.
And looking at the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which tries to determine the soil moisture based on temperature and rainfall, for the same years, the Mississippi River basin was rather dry.
So barring any drastic change from climatological history in similar situations, the Mississippi will likely remain dry through the end of the year, at least.
That said, we will see some rain here and there during the next 10 days that will help – a bit – in the short term. But it won’t change the river levels much.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Tonight
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs around 80.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs around 80.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Monday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for storms. Highs in the lower 80s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance for storms. Lows in the upper 50s.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a few storms possible. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
