If this is the first part of this three-part series that you are seeing and you want to catch up, you can check out the previous two posts on the Winter Outlook by following these two links…
Part 1 – Analogs
Part 2 – General Outlook
This post will look at things broken down month by month given the seasonal data and looking back at analogous years.
The Analogs
As a reminder, the analogs are:
The top analogs have been outlined in bold. These are the years that are a bit more statistically significant. Globally, a lot of the world is using 2010-2011 as an analog, but reigonally for the Gulf Coast, it didn’t line up as well with the factors that go into the regional weather.
Looking at how the seasonal forecast data and analogs have handled things this fall, here is a look at the forecast and the outcome for October:
Not perfect, but reasonable for seasonal forecasting. The whole point is to pick out the bullseyes and the forecast data and analogs seemed to to that pretty well. And that increases my confidence in the forecast going forward.
That said, there were places that I deviated from the forecast data and analogs given other factors.
Month-by-Month Outlooks
These outlooks have to be a little wider because drilling down with specifics like this just isn’t possible to do very accurately.
Anomalous Events
I want to run through a few outliers that, given the data and analogs, I have confidence in occurring despite the forecasts given above…
— This year will likely feature at least two snow events south of I-20 for the region. One of those will be in December
— There will be at least one freezing rain event south of I-20. One will be in January
–Despite February warmth, there will be a stretch of below-average temperatures
— Sub-freezing overnight lows will occur at least once down to the Gulf Coast
— There will be at least a dozen Slight Risk days from the SPC across the region between Nov 1st and March 31st
— Late season cold possible in the Carolinas & Georgia, but less likely west
Hopefully this helps you plan for the Winter. Or, if nothing else, is fun to look at and gives you some hope that it won’t be 85-degrees on Christmas.
