Good morning to all and happy Thursday! For your outlook in southwest Mississippi, we will take a look at the continuing heat and humidity, as well as a possible frontal passage at the end of this week. This frontal passage has the chance to increase our rain chances beyond the scattered normal day-time thunderstorms and showers, depending on how things play out.
As usual in these posts, we will take a look at the big picture currently, then move into a more detailed outlook of how these features will progress and affect the surface conditions.
Currently over much of the southeast, the dominating weather feature is the upper-level ridge centered to our east, with the axis extending all the way out to Texas and New Mexico. At the surface, this translates into temperatures in the mid 90s here in the southeast, with land and sea temperature differences driving a consistent southerly wind off of the Gulf. The combination of high temperatures and humidity has led to heat indices exceeding 105 for extending periods of time, triggering heat advisories across our region.
For high temperatures today, we can expect to be around the low to mid 90s here in southwestern Mississippi.
With the abundant moisture driving dewpoints into the 70s along with temperatures into the mid 90s, heat indices will be above 100, even above 105 in select locations to the north and west of Jackson.
As of writing this post, the NWS had the heat advisory until Wednesday night. However, as they continue to assess the conditions, they may continue to advisory for today, so it is always important to monitor your local forecast office for heat related dangers. Regardless of the advisory, it will still be hot and all heat related safety practices should still be followed.
For precipitation today, the large scale subsidence or downward vertical motion suppresses a lot of convection activity, with the HRRR model showing largely scattered pop-up type storms.
There will likely be activity further to the north and south of us, however here is southwest Mississippi we are under the influence of the upper-level ridge. Further to the south they are influenced by a sea-breeze boundary, and to the north, away from the center of the upper-level ridge. This leaves our area mainly dry.
Moving forward into the weekend and next week, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be slightly higher on Friday and Saturday thanks to a front to our north.
However, I’d like to reiterate that this is a slight increase with the highest chance being around 50-percent. The front looks to keep to our north, leaving the best forcing needed for precipitation to our north. This could change as we get closer to Saturday, as if the front slides further south this would increase precipitation chances.
Looking into the next work week, this front will eventually lift out to the north, leaving the region once again under the influence of upper-level ridging.
For our region, this will mean a continuation of scattered / isolated day-time thunderstorms, with the heat and humidity sticking around our region given the persistent southerly flow from the Gulf. It is likely next week we will continue to see elevated heat indices that could support advisories from the NWS, so its important to continue to monitor the forecast and remain safe from the heat.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Sunny with a 20-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs in the mid 90s with heat indices possibly exceeding 105. Wind southwest 5-to-10mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear with lows in the mid 70s. Wind south at 5-to-10mph.
Friday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s with heat indices up to 105. Wind south at 5-to-10mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Lows in the mid 70s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 50-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 90s.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s. Wind south at 5-to-10mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the mid 70s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s. Wind southwest at 5-to-10mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the mid 70s. Wind southwest at 5mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the low 70s.
