Good morning and happy Thursday, folks!
This week, the heat is expected to continue the combination of high dewpoints and temperatures around 90 propel the feels like temperatures over 100F. A small chance for showers and thunderstorms exists nearly every day, with the threat for rain generally deceasing as we move ahead…
Synoptic Picture
Currently, an upper-level ridge is situated over the Southwest, with a small upper-level low over the Great Lakes next to some weak ridging in the Northeast. The upper-level trough that was present over parts of the Southeast yesterday has moved to the east slightly, noted by the southward dip in the geopotential height lines over the Carolinas.
To see this system a bit more clearly, we have to look at a map showing upper-level vorticity. This map shows enhanced vorticities around much of the Southeast associated with that upper-level disturbance. This enhanced vorticity will stick around through the middle of next week, which will help to slightly increase our chances of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, particularly along sea breeze boundaries.
Aside from the marginal rain chances through the first half of our 7-day forecast period, we need to talk about our other main story: the heat. Today, much of the region remains under a Heat Advisory, with the apparent temperature reaching up to 110F at times this afternoon.
This heat is possible due to our position on the downwind side of the large upper-level low in the Southwest, which promotes sinking, warming air, even if our 500mb height anomalies show values near average.
For the most part, this pattern remains similar through the weekend, with the upper-level high pressure centered over the Southwest, and enhanced vorticity draped across the region due to a weak boundary stalling over the region. This should keep temperatures above average with modest chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly along the sea breeze boundaries.
While there is a slight severe threat for some portions of the Southeast this afternoon, mainly for regions to our north and east along a cluster of thunderstorms that will be moving through parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia this afternoon, the threat for some gusty winds cannot be ruled out – although most Hi-Res models shows very limited coverage of these storms in our area this afternoon.
For the greatest threat of showers and thunderstorms, we’ll have to look at Friday, as some Hi-Res models are showing a weakening cluster of thunderstorms approaching the region around sunrise Friday morning.
As we look a little further ahead, we can see that the ridge currently over the Southwest begins to build back toward the Southeast, with an elongated upper-level high centered over the southern half of the Central United States by Sunday afternoon.
This pattern continues through the middle of next week, with the center of the upper-level high pressure moving more toward the middle of the Southeast.
As this transition takes some time, we can expect our temperatures to slowly increase through the middle of next week, with our chances for precipitation to slowly decrease.
Day-to-day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy skies with a 40-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Tomorrow
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 50-percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Saturday
Partly cloudy skies with a 40-percent chance of an afternoon shower or storm. Expect highs in the upper 80s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy skies with a 40-percent chance of an afternoon shower or storm. Expect highs in the upper 80s.
Monday
Partly cloudy skies with a 40-percent chance of an afternoon shower or storm. Expect highs around 90F.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy skies with a 30-percent chance of an afternoon shower or storm. Expect highs around 90F.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy skies with a 30-percent chance of an afternoon shower or storm. Expect highs in the low 90s.
