Hello everyone and happy Wednesday! As we begin move into the middle and end of this week, the main story will continue to be the heat that sticks around, and showers and thunderstorms remaining to be driven by sea and land temperature contrasts.
As usual, I like to start with a big-picture look at things, and then make our way down to the local level. It is important to note any big weather features, as their effects can make there way to us locally.
Looking at the mid level 500MB map, important features to pick out are the high pressure to our west and the trough denoted by the red dashed lines currently extending down into the southeast. As we will analyze below, this trough is pretty weak with the main areas of stronger vorticity located near an upper-level low moving through Wisconsin and Michigan currently. As a refresher, vorticity tells us the “spin” or rotation associated with a system, with generally higher vorticity values means a stronger system capable or producing more widespread precipitation and severe weather.
As I began to allude to earlier in the post, despite the trough making its way through our area today and eventually lifting out to the north, the vorticity associated with the trough is very weak, compared to the upper-level low near Wisconsin. While vorticity isn’t the only parameter to look for when forecasting for more severe weather and precipitation, it gives a key insight that widespread precipitation is not likely.
Down at the surface, this translates into precipitation chances remaining at or below 50-percent, with local sea and land boundaries driving any rain chances. This is a pattern that is likely to continue throughout the rest of the week.
Looking at the temperatures for today, expect highs to remain right around 90 right at the coastline, with temperatures into the mid 90s and you head away from the Gulf.
Dewpoints are also expected to remain in the mid 70s close to the coastline, given the southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico.
With temperatures in the 90s combined with the dewpoints in the 70s, this bring heat indices close to 105, increasing as you head further inland with the higher temperatures.
Thursday and Friday feature the best days for precipitation. The SPC risk currently leaves more intense thunderstorm and shower activity further north away from the coast on Thursday. However any severe thunderstorms that do make it further south will have the potential to bring localized flooding and gusty downdraft winds. The SPC has this risk highlighted in their outlook, with our region in the less severe thunder category for typical thunderstorms and showers.
Looking into the longer range pattern, the ridge of high-pressure to our west is expected to amplify and extend closer to our region in Mississippi. In fact by Sunday, the ridge currently off to our west is expected to amplify and move closer, putting our region in an area of easterly flow, with the center just over Mississippi and Tennessee.
What this means for our region is temperatures near or slightly above average, with above average more likely away from the coastline, as the continued southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico does help to moderate the heat at the coastlines.
The overall message ends up being our region should continue to see generally localized shower and thunderstorm activity over the next couple of days, with those chances decreasing as the upper-level ridge moves closer to our forecast area into the weekend. Temperatures will continue to remain just at or above average, with the humidity continuing to stick around as it does this time of year.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low-to-mid 90s with heat indices near 105. Wind southwest at 5-to-15mph with gusts up to 20mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 70s. Wind southwest at 5-to-10mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low-to-mid 90s with heat indices up to 106. Wind southwest at 5-to-15mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 70s. Wind southwest at 5-to-10mph.
Friday
Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs near 90 with wind south at 5-to-10mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 70s. Wind south at 5-to-10mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low-to-mid 90s with heat indices near 102. Wind south at 5-to-10mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 70s. Wind south at 5mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind north turning south at 5-to-10mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 70s. Wind light and variable.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 70s.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 70s.
