The number one question this time of year: “Whats it gunna be like on Christmas?”
The second-most frequent question: “Is it gunna snow on Christmas?”
While we are getting into range of not-as-accurate forecast models, not-as-accurate isn’t going to help meteorologists out. Instead, meteorologists can look at teleconnections as something that can offer a look at what general weather patterns will prevail.
From general weather patterns, meteorologists can infer what type of weather certain regions will see.
For example, here is a look at the temperature trend available from the Climate Prediction Center:
Another example, here is a look at the precipitation trend available from the Climate Prediction Center:
So, meteorologists can infer that if the trend is for certain areas to be warmer than average, the chances of a cold Christmas is lower. If those same places will be drier than normal, the chances of snow on Christmas is that much lower, too.
So for example, in south Mississippi we are looking a bit above average and a bit drier than normal… so a White Christmas isn’t looking likely.
Even without the available teleconnections and trends in the models, though, a White Christmas isn’t likely in south Mississippi. In fact it is barely mathematically possible.
Not impossible. But highly unlikely.
The closest we’ve been in recent years was a 38 degree day with a trace amount of precipitation on December 26th, 2012.
