“Meteorologist’s low, Weather Date one-two-two-seven point two-zero-two-four….”
I’ve received a lot of questions about the chance for snow along the Gulf Coast during the next few weeks given a shot for cold. The short answer is: It is highly unlikely.
I know what some people are thinking: “But but but! Nick! I saw on facebook!”
I know. The more elaborative answer is: It it highly unlikely, but the model guidance has shown a chance on a handful of runs during the last few days. And those posts are then shared on social media as “a chance” when in reality the chance is ignorably low.
The truth is these models are rendered every 6 hours. And every six hours they come up with a new outcome.
Here is an animation of all of the model guidance showing where there may be snow during the next 14 days. Each panel is a single model, with each next frame of the animation showing the next rendering of the model at the same time in the future (hopefully that makes sense):
Which model is right? None of them. Because model guidance is just that – guidance. It it rarely “spot on” or “nails” a forecast more than 24 hours out. And even then…
Instead, we can monitor guidance for trends. And patterns.
Notice how it waffles back and forth a lot, but generally there isn’t much support for snow across parts of southern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and Lower Alabama. A few frames here and there show it, but generally, we are snow-free
So, the forecast remains soggy, but not frozen. Though, given that it does show snow here and there, we can say, “it is highly unlikely, but can’t be ruled out.”
Recall that forecasting snow for the Southern MS/AL/LA region is incredibly difficult ebcause so many things have to happen in the correct amounts and a specific time. Unlike in Michigan or North Dakota where you can simply say, “It is January, it is below 35 degrees, and it is going to precipitate, so it’ll probably be snow” down here, we have to line up a bunch of stuff in order to even see a single flake – let alone sticking snow.
I made this guide a few years ago and I think it still holds true:
And all of that information from reliable forecast models isn’t specifically available until about 48 hours ahead of time. We really do need to wait for the short-range models before we can make certain that a forecast is going to be accurate for all of those things.
And even then there are still variables at play that can make the forecast a bit trickier!
So for now, again, the forecast is for cooler weather, some rain and now snow. And sure, we can’t completely rule out the chance. It is just really, really, really low.
