Just in case you were ready for the spring-like weather to continue, Mother Nature is here to remind you that it is still late January and early February.
Across the southern high plains today, passing high clouds and intense west and southwest winds will push temperatures across west Texas and parts of Oklahoma into the 60s and 70s.
Today there is an elevated to critical fire weather danger, too. With a 20mph to 30mph west wind relative humidity levels will drop to below 15-percent at times. a very spring-like, west-of-the-dry-line kind of day.
That changes tomorrow.
For most of the area.
As a shallow – very shallow – cold front sneaks underneath a southwest flow aloft, cold air will infiltrate the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, as well as most of Oklahoma and parts of West and North Texas.
Afternoon high temperatures will be highly dependent on where the frontal boundary associated with the cold air lingers.
Depending on which model run you look at, it could be as far south as a line from Clovis, NM to Wichita Fall, Tx or as far north as a line from Clayton, NM to Oklahoma City, Ok.
And, as it looks right now, either one is equally correct. In fact, of the dozen or so computer weather models available no two model run is identical and only a few are close to the same.
to make things even more difficult is the temperature spread that will be on either side of the front.
Afternoon highs will glide into the 60s and 70s, with a west and southwest wind, ahead of the front and only manage the 30s and 40s behind it. Right now, it looks like there could be a 40-degree temperature spread on Friday afternoon from Beaver, Ok to Hereford, Tx. That is only 173 miles. which means about a one-degree difference every 4 miles.
Then, Sunday, with cold air in place, a system approaches from the west and could spell the chance for snow. Between the different computer weather models it is looking like 1/2″ to 3″ of snow could be realized across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and into parts of southern Oklahoma, too.
After a quick burst of snow, a lull in the action Monday before another system brings better snow chances late Monday and into Tuesday.
This next system – while still a ways out – looks to be carrying better precip chance and more moisture, too.
The GFS computer weather model currently suggests between 2″ and 5″ of additional snowfall across the same area with a bulk of the snow moving into Kansas.
All of this bears watching during the next few days. Check back for more details!
