Enjoy today, Tuesday and Wednesday, folks, because by Thursday and into your Memorial Day weekend, things across the high plains, central plains and Midwest could get rather interesting.
A Quick Breakdown
Both the GFS computer weather model and the ECMWF are in decent agreement that a chance for showers and thunderstorms exists for the high plains and central plains by this next weekend. Even the GEM computer weather model is in the same ballpark.
The main concerns as we head into the weekend are lagre hail and damaging winds. But, because it is May, we also will be watching for isolated tornadoes. As it looks right now, the atmosphere won;t be quite as conducive for tornado development as this past weekend, but it constitues extra attention.
Ooohhh… Details!
On Thursday as an area of low pressure moves onshore along the west coast it will help to open the atmosphere ahead of it. By open, I mean that the air pressure won’t be as high and this will allow for more air to rise more easily. The easier it is for air to rise, the easier it is for convection (cumulonimbus clouds and thunderstorms) to initiate.
The area of low pressure will leave the door open for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, Friday afternoon and perhaps also Saturday afternoon.
There will be plenty of instability at the surface. Surface CAPE values will be in the 1,000J/kg to 3,000 J/kg range with dewpoint readings near 60-degrees. Also, the dryline is looking like it will try to sharpen cross the western Texas / Oklahoma panhandles.
Right now, the upper-atmosphere isn’t looking as threatening for a widespread severe weather outbreak. There will be a few things helping us out to keep our severe weather threat under control.
- Decent “cap” of warm air aloft
- Wind profile from surface to 500mb isn’t that frightening
- Atmosphere might “spend” itself all on one night
In saying that, please don’t let your guard down. If you have weekend plans, make sure they include a “Plan B,” too.
As a quick aside, I know it has been a relatively benign severe weather season across the high plains, but that doesn’t mean it will continue to be. One thing is certain, it only takes ONE storm to level an entire neighborhood.
As always, we will be watching this closely. Check back for updates as we move through the week!
