Good morning folks and happy Thursday!
Current Synoptic Picture
Currently, a weakening upper-level low pressure system is drifting away from the Pacific Northwest while a strong upper-level high sits over the central Rockies. In the eastern half of the country, an upper-level low over northern Quebec is responsible for a large region of troughiness. A small boundary can be made out over the Southeast by the extension of the 5880-isohypse southward along the spine of the Appalachians, as well as with the change in the wind direction around the same area.
If we take a peek at some model vorticity fields, we can see that there is some sort of boundary here, as the vorticity is enhanced over much of the Southeast at the moment. All this energy will help to enhance thunderstorm activity in the area, especially near the Gulf Coast where the greatest surface convergence will be.
Through the Weekend
It isn’t until Friday evening that this boundary is able to clear the Gulf Coast, but by that time, a strengthening upper-level low will help to direct another surge of enhanced upper-level vorticity into the region.
While the bulk of this energy will remain to our east, this will also act to enhance thunderstorm activity in the region through early next week.
According to the global forecast models, away from the immediate coast the 5-day precipitation should stay around, if not less-than average. It’s only when you get right up along the Gulf Coast where the 5-day rainfall is expected to be above-average.
As expected, the arrival of a cooler air mass and the enhanced threat for showers and thunderstorms will help to keep temperatures running slightly below average. This results high temperatures staying in the mid-to-upper 80s through the weekend.
Next Week
As a strengthening upper-level low makes itself at home over the Northeast, the enhanced westerly flow will start to draw some warmer air into the region by Monday, which can be seen well by the forecast mid-level temperature anomalies.
As shown in the image above, this pattern would favor the enhanced vorticity to the north of the Gulf Coast into northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama and into Georgia – which will bring with it periods of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Some of this shower and thunderstorm activity will likely make it near the Gulf Coast as the storms will likely march southward through the day.
For temperatures, starting Monday temperatures should begin to increase to slightly above-average levels, and remain there through the middle of the week, before a frontal passage is likely to bring more showers and thunderstorms (and cooler air) sometime in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. This will mean that high temperatures should be around 90 through Wednesday, before some cooler air works its way into the region.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy with a 70-percent chance for thunderstorms, particularly in the morning. Expect high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Tomorrow
Mostly cloudy with a 70-percent chance for thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Saturday
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 60-percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Sunday
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 50-percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Monday
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with a 20-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect high temperatures around 90F.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies early, with increasing cloudiness throughout the day with a 50-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy skies with a 50-percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
