Hit and miss storms through Weds, better shot on Thurs, Calmer weekend: Southern MS/AL/LA Weather Forecast – 5/6/24

Today and tonight, we’re going to see a lot of different kinds of weather. This is cool. So! The early morning patchy fog will clear out early, giving way to sunshine and warm temperatures during the day. Then, this afternoon and evening, keep an eye out for scattered showers and storms. There isn’t a “good” chance for rain, but we are getting into the time of eyar where nearly every day has a shot for a brief shower.

HRRR model guidance showing isolated showers this afternoon

Then overnight, things clear out and we should remain fog-free given some wind preventing fog formation.

Looking ahead to Tuesday through next Monday, things get a bit more interesting. A low-pressure system is on the move from the Northern High Plains towards the Great Lakes, bringing with it a cold front that’ll trigger storms across the general region by Tuesday afternoon. But I think we may have to wait a bit longer along and south of I-20. For us, I think Wednesday and Thursday, as the front slowly moves southward, we will finally get in on the showers and storms – including the potential for some stronger storms and some localized flash flooding.

ECMWF model guidnace shows showers and storms on Thursday

That said, there’s some uncertainty around the specifics of how things shake out so I’m not fully onboard with calling for a severe weather risk or specific flooding risk quite yet.

By Friday, things calm down and then over the weekend, expect quieter weather and cooler temperatures.



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REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST

Today: Passing clouds with highs around 90. A 20 percent chance for storms in the afternoon. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 70. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph, increasing to around 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

Thursday: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Cooler with lows in the upper 50s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.

Sunday: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.