Hot and humid weather continues… few chances for showers: SW MS Weather Forecast- 6/16/22

Hi folks! As many previous forecasts have stated, the heat and humidity is here to stay! Heat Indexes are expected to continue to be right around either side of 100F, and more likely than not climbing above into the low 100s for the days to come.

The heat and humidity is thanks to an upper-level ridge in place, which is keeping southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico across the general area and providing the high dew points and temperatures across the region. This is a theme this is likely to continue for the rest of the work week, with a possible brief change on Sunday as drier air makes its way down from the north as the ridge continues to move out of our forecast area.

GFS Model 500MB height and winds for Thursday // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Typically with long-wave patterns such as this, things tend to move very slowly, which is why the pattern has been so consistent over the past few days with very little changes to the forecast.

Moving onto Thursday, the NWS has issued a heat advisory for Jackson, MS and points north, where heat indexes are expected to be at or above 104F. However, still expect hot conditions even if your general area is not covered under the NWS’s heat advisory.

NWS Blend heat indexes for Thursday 2PM CDT // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The next notable weather event also makes its way across the area on Thursday evening, where an upper-level disturbance will likely trigger shower and thunderstorm activity across the region late in the day Thursday to the overnight hours. This is as the ridge slowly begins to move out of our region, allowing some storm activity to fire off due to the abundant moisture across our area coupled with the daytime surface heating.

NAM model 500MB heights and relative vorticity for Thursday night // Courtesy: Pivotal Wether

Some of the higher res model guidance is in slight disagreement with how structured and organized the storms are likely to be on Thursday night, with the HRRR giving the best shot at a more organized line of storms moving through the SW MS region, as compared to the NAM which shows very scattered precipitation.

HRRR reflectivity for Thursday 7PM CDT // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

With the storms not expected to be quite strong, expect to pick up a quick burst of precipitation, before drying out as the line moves on past.

The rest of the week looks to be hot, with the most notable change to the pattern arriving to the area on Sunday. This change will feature northerly flow as our region gets placed on the downstream side of the upper-level ridge.

GFS model 200MB Heights and Winds // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

At the surface, this translates into a much more comfortable Canadian airmass, with dew points on Sunday remaining in the 50’s to lower 60’s! Much more comfortable than the dew points in the 70’s that has been over the region for much of the week.

GFS model surface dew points // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather


Day to Day Forecast

Thursday
Mostly Sunny with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures in the low to mid 90’s with heat indexes up to 105F. Wind calm becoming northeast at 5 to 10MPH.

Friday
Sunny with a high in the low to mid 90’s and a 30-percent change of an afternoon shower. Heat Index up to 104F. Wind north at 5 to 10MPH.

Saturday
Sunny with a 40-percent chance of an afternoon shower with highs in the mid 90’s. Heat index up to 104F. Wind north 5 to 10MPH.

Sunday
Sunny and noticeably less humid. High in the low 90’s with a heat index near 100F. Wind northeast at 5 to 10MPH.

Monday
Sunny with highs in the mid 90’s. Heat index near 100F. Wind east at 5MPH.

Tuesday
Sunny with highs in the mid 90’s. Heat index may reach 105F. Wind northeast 5MPH.

Wednesday
Sunny with highs in the mid to upper 90’s. Heat index near 100F. Wind north 5 to 10MPH.



Author of the article:


Sincere Miranda

Raised in New England and currently attending Plymouth State University '23.

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