Good morning folks and happy Saturday – and a happy Saturday (and Sunday) it will be, as this weekend should remain mostly dry with only minimal chances for an isolated afternoon storm. With that being said however, the temperatures will remain in the low-to-mid-90s throughout the region without a good opportunity to cool off. If you enjoy the rain though, have no fear, as showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for much of next week, along with some slightly cooler temperatures.
Current Synoptic Picture
Much like has been the story for most of the summer, an upper-level ridge is centered to our west over the Oklahoma-Kansas border, and the sub-tropical ridge extends from the Atlantic westward into the Southeast. All of this is allowing for a weak southerly flow over the region this morning.
As Sincere said in the last SE AL / SW MS post, we’re kind of stuck between these two upper-level features, so we’re not seeing the above-average temperatures or the drier conditions that one may expect with all of this ridging. If anything, being on the periphery of these ridges is increasing our chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through most of the week.
Today, Tomorrow
While there has been a threat for showers and thunderstorms almost every day this week, this weekend will bring a nice, albeit quick, change of pace. As the subtropical ridge pushes from the east just enough into our area, any upper-level forcing for thunderstorms will remain out of the area, leaving us with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low-to-mid-90s. Still, there is a slight chance of a rogue thunderstorms due to all the heat and moisture available in the atmosphere – that being said, without a forcing mechanism, the threat for a storm is relatively low.
Through Next Week
As the sub-tropical ridge pulls away from the region late Sunday, some upper-level energy is allowed to slowly fill in.
According to the GEFS model, the Mississippi-Alabama area is wedged between two regions of greater precipitation, one to the south over the Gulf, and one farther north in parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Nonetheless, the potential for about an inch of rain is likely through the end of next week, with locally higher amounts possible as this rain will fall from slow-moving showers and thunderstorms.
Due to the enhanced rain chances, increased cloud cover will help to keep the temperatures a tad cooler, with some locations across the region struggling to break 90.
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy skies with a 10-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Expect highs in the low-to-mid-90s.
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy skies with a 10-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Expect highs in the low 90s.
Monday
Partly cloudy skies early with increasing cloudiness throughout the day and a 50-percent chance for an afternoon storm. Expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90F
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy skies with a 70-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90F
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy skies with a 70-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90F
Thursday
Mostly cloudy skies with a 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Friday
Mostly cloudy skies with a 60-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.
